Quinn, Terry and Kenny, Geoff and Meyler, Aidan (1999): Inflation Analysis: An Overview. Published in: Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland Technical Paper Series , Vol. 1999, No. 1/RT/1999 (March 1999): pp. 1-22.
Download (48Kb) | Preview
The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank, with particular emphasis on recent research and the new challenges facing the Bank following the launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Broadly speaking the approach adopted by the Bank over a number of years has been an eclectic one which combines judgement and a range of formal approaches. The latter include structural models which are strongly influenced by basic macroeconomic theories of the small open economy (SOE), indicator analysis, including a composite leading indicator, and time series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), vector autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models. The emphasis on particular methodologies has evolved over time but in all cases judgement has played a central role.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Inflation Analysis: An Overview|
|Keywords:||inflation analysis and forecasting; judgement; small open economy; ARIMA; BVAR|
|Subjects:||E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E30 - General
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
|Depositing User:||Aidan Meyler|
|Date Deposited:||03. Nov 2008 14:40|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 12:02|
Alberola, E., and T. Tyrvainen, 1998. “Is There Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries”, Bank of Finland Discussion Papers, 15/98.
Bicker, J. A., 1993. “A Leading Indicator of Inflation for the Netherlands”, Quarterly Bulletin De Netherlande Bank, No. 3, pp. 43-56.
Bradley, J., 1977. “Lags in the Transmission of Inflation”, The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 149-154.
Browne, F.X., 1984. “The International Transmission of Inflation to a Small Open Economy Under Fixed Exchange Rates and Highly Interest Sensitive Capital Flows”, European Economic Review, Vol. 25, pp. 187-212.
Callan, T., and J. Fitzgerald, 1989. “Price Determination in Ireland: Effects of Changes in Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Regimes”, The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 20, No. 2, January, pp. 165-188.
Cecchetti, S., 1996. “Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, No. 5786.
Cecchetti, S., 1995. “Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy”, National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual 1995, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Doan, T., R. Litterman and C. Sims, 1984. “Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions”, Econometric Reviews, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 1-100.
Flynn, J., 1986. “A Simulation Model of the Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Inflation and the Trade Balance”, Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin, Summer, pp. 103-108.
Fountas, S., B. Lally and J. Wu, 1995. “The Relationship Between Inflation and Wage Growth in the Irish Economy”, Department of Economics, University College Galway Working Paper, No. 6.
Geary, P.T., 1976a. “World Prices and the Inflationary Process in a Small Open Economy - the Case of Ireland”, The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 391-400.
Geary, P.T., 1976b. “Lags in the Transmission of Inflation: Some Preliminary Estimates”, The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 6, June, pp. 55-63.
Geary, P.T., and R. Jones, 1975. “The Appropriate Measure of Unemployment in an Irish Phillips Curve”, The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 219-233.
Honohan, P., and J. Flynn, 1986. “Irish Inflation in EMS”, The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 17, No. 3, April, pp. 175-191.
Howlett, D., and D. McGettigan, 1995. “Money, credit and prices: A VAR analysis”, Central Bank of Ireland Annual Report 1994, pp. 109-130.
Kenny, G., 1996. “Capacity utilisation in Irish manufacturing”, Central Bank of Ireland Technical Paper, 2/RT/96.
Kenny, G., 1995. “Some estimates of potential output and the output gap for Ireland”, Central Bank of Ireland Technical Paper, 5/RT/95.
Kenny, G., and D. McGettigan, 1999. “Modelling Traded, Non-Traded and Aggregate Inflation in a Small Open Economy: the Case of Ireland”, The Manchester School, 67, pp. 60-88.
Kenny, G., and D. McGettigan, 1998. “Exchange Rates and Import Prices for a Small Open Economy: the Case of Ireland”, Applied Economics, 30, pp. 1147-1155.
Kenny, G., A. Meyler and T. Quinn, 1998. “Bayesian VAR Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation”, Central Bank of Ireland Technical Paper, 4/RT/98.
McGettigan, D., 1995. “The Term Structure of Interest Rates in Ireland: Description and Measurement”, Central Bank of Ireland Technical Paper, 1/RT/95.
Meyler, A., G. Kenny and T. Quinn, 1998. “Forecasting Irish Inflation Using ARIMA Models”, Central Bank of Ireland Technical Paper, 3/RT/98.
O’Connell, T., and J. Frain 1989. “Inflation and exchange rates: A further empirical analysis”, Central Bank of Ireland Technical Paper, 1/RT/89.
Quah, D., and S. Vahey, 1995. “Measuring Core Inflation”, Economic Journal, Vol. 105. September, pp. 1130-1144.
Quinn, T., and A. Mawdsley, 1996. “Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator”, Central Bank of Ireland Technical Paper, 4/RT/96.