Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries

Kitov, Ivan (2007): Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries.

Abstract

Linear relationships between inflation, unemployment, and labor force are obtained for two European countries - Austria and France. The best fit models of inflation as a linear and lagged function of labor force change rate and unemployment explain more than 90% of observed variation (R2>0.9). Labor force projections for Austria provide a forecast of decreasing inflation for the next ten years. In France, inflation lags by four years behind labor force change and unemployment allowing for an exact prediction at a four-year horizon. Standard error of such a prediction is lower than 1%. The results confirm those obtained for the USA and Japan and provide strong evidences in favor of the concept of labor force growth as the only driving force behind unemployment and inflation.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: inflation, unemployment, labor force, modeling
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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