Hamanaka, Shingo (2009): Public Opinion behind the Deterrence: An Evolutionary Game Theoretic Study of the Israeli Policy towards Lebanon.
Download (453Kb) | Preview
Israel’s policies regarding Lebanon have been dependent on public opinion, which is very volatile. The citizens of Israel did not favor the occupation of the security zone in South Lebanon because of the Four Mothers movement, and it influenced the government to withdraw military forces unilaterally in May 2000. When Hizbollah attacked the Israel Defense Force (IDF) patrol and abducted two soldiers on the northern border, the Israeli citizens supported the government’s decision of waging a war in retaliation. This study aims to shed light on the causal mechanism of the influence of public opinion on the defense policy in the rational framework of deterrence strategy. I chose the evolutionary game theory approach as my research method. My study yielded the following result: the deterrence is not stable when the aggression level of the defenders is less than the level of the critical condition. The Israeli government made a decision to conduct unilateral withdrawal under the pressure of passive defenders among the people. However, the IDF could begin the operation in Lebanon because of a substantial number of supporters who hoped to restore the deterrence. This study concludes that the Israelis exhibited strong intension and an aggressive attitude toward the deterrence.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Public Opinion behind the Deterrence: An Evolutionary Game Theoretic Study of the Israeli Policy towards Lebanon|
|Keywords:||Deterrence, Evolutionary Game Theory, Second Lebanon War, Israel, Hizbollah|
|Subjects:||N - Economic History > N4 - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation > N45 - Asia including Middle East
F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations and International Political Economy
F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations and International Political Economy > F51 - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C7 - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
N - Economic History > N4 - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C7 - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory > C72 - Noncooperative Games
|Depositing User:||Shingo Hamanaka|
|Date Deposited:||15. Aug 2009 07:13|
|Last Modified:||20. Feb 2013 01:54|
Achcar, Gilbert with Michel Warschawski (2007) The 33 Day War: Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon and its Consequences. Boulder: Paradigm Publishers.
Almog, Doron. (2004) “Cumulative Deterrence and the War on Terrorism,” Mimeograph. Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
Arian, Asher. (2000) Israeli Public Opinion on National Security 2000. Tel Aviv: Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies.
Art, Robert and Kenneth Waltz. (1971) “Technology, Strategy, and the Use of Force,” in The Use of Force. Boston: Little Brown, 1-25.
Bar, Shmuel. (2007) “Deterring Nonstate Terrorist Groups: The Case of Hizballah,” Comparative Security, 26: 469–493.
Bar, Shmuel. (2008) “Deterring Terrorists: What Israel Has Learned,” Policy Review, 149: 29–42.
Ben Meir, Yehuda. (2007) “Israeli Public Opinion and the Second Lebanon War,” in Brom and Elran, 87–102.
Bergman, Ronen. (2007) Point of No Return (Nikdot Halihzor): Israeli Intelligence against Iran and Hizballah. Kineret: Zmor-Bitan (in Hebrew).
Biddle, Stephan and Jeffrey Friedman. (2008) The 2006 Lebanon Campaign and the Future of Warfare: Implications for Army and Defense Policy. Pennsylvania: Strategic Studies Institute.
Brom, Shlomo. (2007) “Political and Military Objectives in a Limited War against a Guerilla Organization,” in Brom and Elran, 13–23.
Brom, Shlomo and Meir Elran eds. The Second Lebanon War: Strategic Perspectives. Tel Aviv: Institute for National Security Studies (translation from Milhamat Lebanon Hashniyya. Tel Aviv: Yedioth Books in Hebrew).
Deeb, Lara. (2008) “Hizballah and its Civilian Constituencies in Lebanon,” in Nubar Hovsepian ed. The War on Lebanon: A Reader. Massachusetts: Olive Branch Press, 58–74.
Eiland, Giora. (2008) “The IDF: Addressing the Failures of the Second Lebanon War,” in Mark A. Heller ed. The Middle East Strategic Balance 2007–2008. Tel Aviv: Institute for National Security Studies, 31–37.
Evron, Yair. (1987) War and Intervention in Lebanon: The Israeli-Syrian Deterrence Dialogue. London: Croom Helm.
Evron, Yair. (1994) Israel’s Nuclear Dilemma. London: Routledge.
Evron, Yair. (2007) “Deterrence and its Limitations,” in Brom and Elran, 35–47.
Farkash, Aharon Ze’evi (2007) “Intelligence in the War: Observations and Insights,”in Brom and Elran,77–86.
Fearon, James D. (1994) “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes,” American Political Science Review, 88:577–592.
Harel, Amos and Avi Issacharoff (2008) 34 Days: Israel, Hezbollah and the War in Lebanon. New York: Palgrave Macmillan (translation from Spider Webs (Kori ‘Achbish)). Tel Aviv: Yedioth Books in Hebrew).
Inbar, Efraim. (1998) “Israeli National Security, 1973–96,” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 555: 62–81.
Jervis, Robert, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein. (1989) Psychology and Deterrence. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Kaye, Dalia Dassa. (2002–3) “The Israeli Decision to Withdraw from Southern Lebanon: Political Leadership and Security Policy,” Political Science Quarterly, 117 (4): 561–585.
Kfir, Ilan. (2006) The Earth Has Trembled (Haadama La’ada: 33 yamim, Lebanon 2006). Tel Aviv: Ma’ariv Book (in Hebrew).
Kober, Avi. (2008) “The Israel Defense Forces in the Second Lebanon War: Why the Poor Performance ?,” Journal of Strategic Studies, 31 (1): 3–40.
Kuperman, Ranan D. (2003) “The Effect of Domestic and Foreign Pressure on Israeli Decisions To Use Limited Military Force,” Journal of Peace Research, 40 (6): 677–694.
Levy, Jack S. (1992) “Prospect Theory and International Relations,” Political Psychology, 13 (2): 283–310.
Lupovici, Amir (2009) “Constructivist Methods: A Plea and Manifesto for Pluralism,” Review of International Studies, 35: 195–218.
Maoz, Zeev. (2006) Defending the Holy Land: A Critical Analysis of Israel’s Security & Foreign Policy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Mearsheimer, John. (1983) Conventional Deterrence. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Morgan, Patrick. (1983) Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis. London: Sage.
Morgan, Patrick. (2003) Deterrence Now. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Norton, Augustus R. (2007) Hezbollah: A Short History. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Osoekawa, Taku. (2008) “Israeli Attack on Lebanon and its Effects,” in Hidemitsu Kuroki ed. Peace Making in the period of the Fight against Terror. Tokyo: Toushindo (in Japanese), 129–145.
Oura, Hirokuni. (2008) Evolutionary Game Theory for Social Scientist. Tokyo: Keiso Sobou (in Japanese).
Powell, Robert (1990) Nuclear Deterrence Theory: The Search for Credibility. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Rapaport, Amir. (2007) Friendly Fire (Esh ‘Al Khohuteinu). Tel Aviv: Ma’ariv Book (in Hebrew).
Romm, Giora. (2007) “A Test of Rival Strategies: Two Ships Passing in the Night,” in Brom and Elran, 49–60.
Sartori, Anne E. (2005) Deterrence by Diplomacy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Schultz, Kenneth A. (2001) Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Shavit, Yossi, Ephraim Ya’ar, Tamar Hermann, and Irit Adler (2006) “Public Feelings and Attitudes on the Warfare in the North,” Public Opinion, 12, B.I. and Lucille Cohen Institute, Tel Aviv University.
Shelah, Ofer and Yoav Limor. (2007) Captives of Lebanon (Shabuyim BeLebanon). Tel Aviv: Yedioth Books.
Sobelman, Daniel. (2004) New Rules of the Game: Israel and Hizbollah after the Withdrawal from Lebanon. Tel Aviv: Jafee Center for Strategic Studies.
Steinberg, Gerald M. (2001) “Foreign Policy in the 1999 Elections,” in Daniel J. Elazar and M. Ben Mollov. eds. Israel at the Polls 1999. London: Frank Cass, 173–198.
Suechika, Kota. (2009) “Enforcement of Hizbollah and the Lebanon War: July-August 2006,” in Hiroyuki Aoyama and Kota Suechika. Contemporary Political Regimes of Syria and Lebanon. Tokyo: Iwanami Books, 167–200 (in Japanese).
Tsutiyama, Jitsuo. (2004) International Politics of Security: Anxiety and Hubris. Tokyo: Yuhikaku (in Japanese).
Yaar, Ephraim and Tamar Hermann. (2007) Peace Index: April 2007. Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research in Tel Aviv University.
Yaniv, Avner. (1987) Deterrence without the Bomb: The Politics of Israeli Strategy. Massachusetts: Lexington Books.
Zagare, Frank C. and D. Marc Kilgour. (2000) Perfect Deterrence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Zisser, Eyal. (2007) “The Battle for Lebanon: Lebanon and Syria in the Wake of the War,” in Brom and Elran, 135–149.