Bezemer, Dirk J and Werner, RA (2009): Disaggregated Credit Flows and Growth in Central Europe.
This is the latest version of this item.
Download (208Kb) | Preview
The aim of this paper is to explore the link between credit and output in the context of a developed transition economy. Salient credit market features of these economies are (i) credit market imperfections leading to constraints on growth and (ii) the rapidly growing importance during transition of their financial sectors (the insurance, pension funds and real estate sectors). We develop a framework of credit and output including separate measures for credit to the real sector and financial sectors and for credit constraints, taking account of the role of trade credit. In our empirical work we focus on the Czech Republic because of the level of its financial development and data quality. In VAR and ARIMA analyses we find that our disaggregated measures for credit flows are better predictors of nominal growth than traditional, aggregate measures.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Disaggregated Credit Flows and Growth in Central Europe|
|Keywords:||Credit, growth, transition, central Europe, Czech Republic|
|Subjects:||E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy|
|Depositing User:||Dirk J Bezemer|
|Date Deposited:||07. Oct 2009 18:45|
|Last Modified:||11. Feb 2013 17:03|
Bárta, V & M Singer (2006) The Banking Sector After 15 Years of Restructuring: Czech Experience and Lessons. Bank of International Settlements Paper no. 28.
Beck, T & R Levine & N Loayza (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics 58(1-2), pp 261-300
Benk, S, M Gillman & M Kejak, (2005) Credit Shocks in the Financial Deregulatory Era: Not the Usual Suspects, Review of Economic Dynamics 8(3), pp 668-687
Egert, B, P Backe & T Zumer (2006) Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?. ECB Woking Paper No. 687
Faust, J (2008) Whither macroeconomics? The surprising success of naïve GDP forecasts. VoxEU.org (31 January 2008), Centre for Economic Policy Research
Fisher, I (1911) The Purchasing Power of Money. Kessinger Publishing
Gardiner, G (2005) The Evolution of Creditary Structures and Controls, Palgrave McMillan
Hájková, D, J Hanousek & L Nemecek (2002) The Czech Republic’s Banking Sector: Emrging from Turbulent Times. EIB papers 7(1): pp 55-72
FRBD (2009) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas website education section, at http://www.dallasfed.org/educate/everyday/ev9.html. Accessed February 25, 2009 Dallas: the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Koopman, S, R Kraussl, A Lucas & Andre Monteir (2006) Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2006-023/2
Kyotaki, M and J Moore, (1997) Credit Cycles. Journal of Political Economy 105, 211-248
Mateut, S (2005) Trade Credit and Monetary Policy Transmission; Journal of Economic Surveys 19(4): 655-70
Pigou, A (1911) The Value of Money. Quarterly Journal of Economics 32 (1917-18):. 38-65
Rajan, R & L Zingales (2001) The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the 20th Century. CRSP Working Paper No. 526
Rodríguez Mora, J & P Schulstad (2007) The effect of GNP announcements on fluctuations of GNP growth. European Economic Review, 2007; 51 (8)
Sirtaine, S & I Skamnelos (2007) Credit Growth in Emerging Europe: A Cause for Stability Concerns? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4281
Tornell, A and F Westermann (2005) Boom-Bust Cycles and Financial Liberalization. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Uhlig, H (2003) What moves real GNP? Manuscript, Humbolt University, Berlin
UN et al., (2008) System of National Accounts, live online version at http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/introduction.asp Published jointly by the United Nations, the Commission of the European Communities, the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and the World Bank
Werner, R (1992) Towards a Quantity Theorem of Disaggregated Credit and International Capital Flows. Paper presented at the Royal Economic Society annual conference, York, April 1993
Werner, R (1997). Towards a New Monetary Paradigm: A Quantity Theorem of Disaggregated Credit, with Evidence from Japan. Kredit und Kapital, 3(2): 276-309
Available Versions of this Item
Disaggregated Credit Flows and Growth in Central Europe. (deposited 24. Jun 2009 23:59)
- Disaggregated Credit Flows and Growth in Central Europe. (deposited 07. Oct 2009 18:45) [Currently Displayed]