McCloskey, Deirdre Nansen (2009): Domestic Reshufflings, Such as Transport and Coal, Do Not Explain the Modern World.
Download (201Kb) | Preview
Transportation improvements cannot have caused anything close to the factor of 16 in British economic growth. By Harberger’s (and Fogel’s) Law, an industry that is 10% of national product, improving by 50 percent on the 50% of non-natural routes, results in a mere one-time increase of product of 2.5% (= .1 x .5 x .5), when the thing to be explained is an increase of 1500%. Nor is transport rescued by “dynamic” effects, which are undermined by (1.) the small size of the static gain to start them off and (2.) the instable economic models necessary to make them nonlinear dynamic. The same holds for many other suggested causes of the modern world: enclosure, for example, or the division of labor or the Kuznets-Williamson Hypothesis of reallocation from agriculture to industry, country to town. Wider geographical arguments, such as Diamond’s or Sachs’, turn out to be ill-timed to explain what we wish to explain. And “resources,” such as oil or gold, have both the Harberger Problem and the timing problem. Not even coal---the favorite of Wrigley, Pomeranz, Allen, and Harris---can survive the criticism that it was transportable and substitutable. The factor-bias arguments of Allen have the old problem of the Habbakuk Hypothesis, namely, that all factors are scarce. Even if we add up all the static and quasi-dynamic effects of resources, they do not explain Britain’s lead, or Japan’s or Hong Kong’s catching up.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Domestic Reshufflings, Such as Transport and Coal, Do Not Explain the Modern World|
|Keywords:||British economic growth, transportation, coal, growth hypotheses, industrial revolution|
|Subjects:||B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B1 - History of Economic Thought through 1925 > B10 - General
N - Economic History > N0 - General > N01 - Development of the Discipline: Historiographical; Sources and Methods
|Depositing User:||Susan MacDonald|
|Date Deposited:||30. Nov 2009 07:41|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 20:50|
Allen, Robert C. 1977. "The Peculiar Productivity History of American Blast. Furnaces, 1840-1913." Journal of Economic History 37 (Sept): 605-633.
Allen, Robert C. 2006. “The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective: How Commerce Created the Industrial Revolution and Modern Economic Growth.” Unpublished paper Nuffield College, Oxford University. At http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/users/allen/ unpublished/econinvent-3.pdf
Clark, Gregory, and David Jacks. 2007. “Coal and the Industrial Revolution.” European Review of Economic History 11 (April): 39-72.
David, Paul A. 1969. “Transport Innovations and Economic Growth: Professor Fogel On and Off the Rails.” Economic History Review 2nd ser. 22: 506-525.
Diamond, Jared. 1997. Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies. New York: Random House.
Federico, Giovanni. 2005. Feeding the World: An Economic History of Agriculture, 1800-2000. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Fogel, Robert W. 1979. "Notes on the Social Saving Controversy." Journal of Economic History 39: 1-54.
Fremdling, Rainer. 2000. “Transfer Patterns of British Technology to the Continent. The Case of the Iron Industry.” European Review of Economic History 4: 197-220.
Gerschenkron, Alexander. 1957. "Reflections on the Concept of 'Prerequisites' of Modern Industrialization." L'industria 2. Reprinted as pp. 31-51 in Gerschenkron, Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective: A Book of Essays. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1962.
Goldstone, Jack A. 2009. Why Europe? The Rise of the West in World History, 1500-1850. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Harley, C. K. 1993. “Reassessing the Industrial Revolution: A Macro View.” Pp. 171-226 in J. Mokyr, ed., The British Industrial Revolution: An Economic Perspective. Boulder: Westview.
Harris, John R. 1992. Essays in Industry and Technology in the Eighteenth Century: England and France. Aldershot, England and Burlington, Vermont: Ashgate Variorum.
Harris, John R. 1996. “Law, Espionage and Transfer of Technology from Eighteenth-Century Britain.” Pp. 123-136 in Robert Fox, ed. Technological Change: Methods and Themes in the History of Technology. Amsterdam: Harwood Academic Publishers.
Harris, John R. 2000. Industrial Espionage and Technology Transfer: Britain and France in the 18th Century. CITY: Ashgate.
Hudson, Patricia, ed. 1989. Regions and Industries: A Perspective on Britain’s Industrial Revolution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Jones, Eric L. 2003. “Natural Resources: Historical Overview.” In Mokyr, ed. Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic History.
Krugman, Paul. 1997. Development, Geography, and Economic Theory. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Krugman, Paul. 2000. “Where in the World is the ‘New Economic Geography’?” Pp.49-60 in G. L. Clark, Maryann P.
Feldman, and M. S. Gertler, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Economic Geography. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Kussmaul, Anne. 1981. Servants in Husbandry in Early Modern England. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Luciani, Patrick. 2004. “Do Cities Create Wealth? A Critique of New Urban Thinking and the Role of Public Policy for Cities.” The AIMS Urban Futures Series (Paper #2). Atlantic Institute for Market Studies Halifax, Nova Scotia. June. At http://www.aims.ca/library/Luciani.pdf
Maddison, Angus. 1965. Industrial Growth and World Trade. National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Maddison, Angus. 2006. The World Economy. Comprising The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective (2001) and The World Economy: Historical Statistic (2003) bound as one. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Maddison, Angus. 2007. Contours of the World Economy, 1-2030 AD. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
McCloskey, Deirdre N. 1972a. “The Enclosure of Open Fields: Preface to a Study of its Impact on the Efficiency of English Agriculture in the Eighteenth Century." Journal of Economic History 32: 15‑35.
McCloskey, Deirdre N. 1973. Economic Maturity and Entrepreneurial Decline: British Iron and Steel, 1870‑1913. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
McCloskey, Deirdre N. 1975a. “The Economics of Enclosure: A Market Analysis.” Pp. 123-160 in E. L. Jones and William Parker, eds. European Peasants and Their Markets: Essays in Agrarian Economic History. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
McCloskey, Deirdre N. 1981. “The Industrial Revolution, 1780-1860: A Survey.” Chapter 6 in Floud and McCloskey eds., The Economic History of Britain, 1700-Present (1981), Vol. 1, pp. 103-127, reprinted in J. Mokyr, ed. Economic History and the Industrial Revolution (Rowman and Littlefield, 1985).
Mellinger, Andrew D., Jeffrey D. Sachs, and John L. Gallup. 2002. “Climate, Coastal Proximity, and Development.” Pp. 169-194 in G. L. Clark, Maryann P.
Feldman, and M. S. Gertler, eds., the Oxford Handbook of Economic Geography. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Olmstead, Alan L., and Paul W. Rhode. 2008b. Creating Abundance: Biological Innovation and American Agricultural Development. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Reiter, Paul. 2000. “From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age.” Merging Infectious Diseases 6 (Jan/Feb). Coordinating Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol6no1/reiter.htm
Sellar, Walter C., and R. J. Yeatman. 1931. 1066 and All That: A Memorable History of England. (Bound with And Now All This. ) New York: Blue Ribbon Books, 1932.
Smith, Adam. 1776. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Glasgow Edition. Campbell,
Skinner, and Todd, eds. 2 vols. Indianapolis: Liberty Classics, 1976, 1981
Stigler, George. 1967. "Imperfections in the Capital Market." Journal of Political Economy 75 (June): 287-292.
Szostak, Rick. 1991. The Role of Transportation in the Industrial Revolution. Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press.
Temin, Peter. 1964. Iron and Steel in Nineteenth Century America: An Economic Inquiry. Cambridge: M.I.T. Press.
Temple, Robert. 1986. The Genius of China. Forward by Joseph Needham. 3rd ed. 2007. London: Andre Deutsch.
Tocqueville, Alexis de. 1835. Journeys to England and Ireland. Jacob Peter Mayer, ed. Trans. from French by G. Lawrence and K. P. Mayer. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1958. New Brunswick: Transaction Books, 1988.
Tunzelmann, Nick von. 2003. “Technology.” In Mokyr, ed. Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic History.
Williamson, Jeffrey G. 1987. “Did English Factor Markets Fail During the Industrial Revolution?” Oxford Economic Papers 39: 641‑78.
Williamson, Jeffrey G. 1975. Late Nineteenth-Century American Development: A General Equilibrium History. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.