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A Hybrid Intelligent Early Warning System for Predicting Economic Crises: The Case of China

Su, Dongwei and He, Xingxing (2010): A Hybrid Intelligent Early Warning System for Predicting Economic Crises: The Case of China.

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Abstract

This paper combines artificial neural networks (ANN), fuzzy optimization and time-series econometric models in one unified framework to form a hybrid intelligent early warning system (EWS) for predicting economic crises. Using quarterly data on 12 macroeconomic and financial variables for the Chinese economy during 1999 and 2008, the paper finds that the hybrid model possesses strong predictive power and the likelihood of economic crises in China during 2009 and 2010 remains high.

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