Munich Personal RePEc Archive

A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions

Kitchen, John (2003): A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions.

[img]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_21070.pdf

Download (272Kb) | Preview

Abstract

This paper examines the relative reliability of alternative measures of employment around business cycle turning points, with particular focus on the behavior of the series at the critical business cycle phase of early expansion phase following a recession. Historical evidence shows that the initial “real time” changes in household employment have provided information for subsequent revisions to the estimates of changes in payroll employment.

UB_LMU-Logo
MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by
the Munich University Library in Germany.