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Non-positive scaling factor in probability quantification methods: deriving consumer inflation perceptions and expectations in the whole euro area and Ireland

Lyziak, Tomasz (2011): Non-positive scaling factor in probability quantification methods: deriving consumer inflation perceptions and expectations in the whole euro area and Ireland.

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Abstract

There are problems with using probability quantification methods when the scaling factor applied in those methods becomes non-positive. The way of adjusting them proposed in this note and verified empirically allows using them in such circumstances. The results for the euro area and Ireland suggest that the recent financial crisis made consumer inflation perception and expectations go down, however it did not create deflationary expectations in this groups of economic agents.

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