González-Val, Rafael and Lanaspa, Luis (2011): Patterns in U.S. urban growth (1790–2000).
Download (233kB) | Preview
This paper reconsiders the evolution of the growth of American cities since 1790 in the light of new theories of urban growth. Our null hypothesis for long-term growth is random growth. We obtain evidence supporting random growth against the alternative of mean reversion (convergence) in city sizes using panel unit root tests. We also examine mobility within the distribution to try to extract growth patterns different from the general unit root trend detected. We find evidence of high mobility when we model growth as a first-order Markov process. Finally, using a cluster procedure we find strong evidence in favour of conditional convergence in city growth rates within convergence clubs, which we can interpret as “local” mean-reverting behaviours. Both the high mobility and the results of the clustering analysis seem to indicate a sequential city growth pattern.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Patterns in U.S. urban growth (1790–2000)|
|Keywords:||city size; urban growth; random growth; sequential city growth; transition matrices; club convergence|
|Subjects:||O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O18 - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R12 - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
|Depositing User:||Rafael González-Val|
|Date Deposited:||20. May 2011 12:49|
|Last Modified:||14. Feb 2013 05:59|
Banerjee, A., M. Massimiliano, and C. Osbat, (2005). Testing for PPP: should we use panel methods? Empirical Economics, 30: 77–91.
Batty, M., (2006). Rank clocks. Nature, Vol. 444, 30 November 2006, 592-596.
Beeson, P.E., D. N. DeJong, and W. Troesken, (2001). Population Growth in US Counties, 1840-1990. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 31: 669-699.
Black, D., and V. Henderson, (1999). Spatial Evolution of Population and Industry in the United States. The American Economic Review, Vol. 89(2), Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Eleventh Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 1999), 321-327.
Black, D., and V. Henderson, (2003). Urban evolution in the USA. Journal of Economic Geography, Vol. 3(4): 343-372.
Bosker, E. M., S. Brakman, H. Garretsen and M. Schramm, (2008). A century of shocks: the evolution of the German city size distribution 1925 – 1999. Regional Science and Urban Economics 38: 330–347.
Bridenbaugh, C., (1938). Cities in the Wilderness. The Ronald Press.
Canova, F., (2004). Testing for convergence clubs in income per capita: a predictive density approach. International Economic Review, 45: 49–77.
Champernowne, D., (1953). A model of income distribution. Economic Journal, LXIII: 318-351.
Cheshire, P. C., and S. Magrini, (2006). Population Growth in European Cities: Weather Matters- but only Nationally. Regional Studies, 40(1): 23-37.
Clark, J. S., and J. C. Stabler, (1991). Gibrat's Law and the Growth of Canadian Cities. Urban Studies, 28(4): 635-639.
Córdoba, J. C., (2008). A generalized Gibrat's law. International Economic Review, Vol. 49(4): 1463-1468.
Cuberes, D., (2009). A Model of Sequential City Growth. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Vol. 9: Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 18.
Cuberes, D., (2011). Sequential City Growth: Empirical Evidence. Journal of Urban Economics, 69: 229–239.
Davis, D. R., and D. E. Weinstein, (2002). Bones, bombs, and break points: the geography of economic activity. American Economic Review, 92(5): 1269–1289.
Dobkins, L. H., and Y. M. Ioannides, (2000). Dynamic evolution of the US city size distribution. Included in Huriot, J. M. and J. F. Thisse (Eds.), The economics of cities. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 217-260.
Dobkins, L. H., and Y. M. Ioannides, (2001). Spatial interactions among U.S. cities: 1900–1990. Regional Science and Urban Economics 31: 701–731.
Duranton, G., (2007). Urban Evolutions: The Fast, the Slow, and the Still. American Economic Review, 97(1): 197-221.
Durlauf, S. N., and P. A. Johnson, (1995). Multiple regimes and cross-country growth behavior. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10: 365–384.
Eaton, J., and Z. Eckstein, (1997). Cities and Growth: Theory and Evidence from France and Japan. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1997, 27(4 –5), 443–474.
Eeckhout, J., (2004). Gibrat's Law for (All) Cities. American Economic Review, 94(5): 1429–1451.
Eeckhout, J., (2009). Gibrat’s Law for (all) Cities: Reply. American Economic Review, 99(4): 1676–1683.
Ellison, G., and E. L. Glaeser, (1999). The geographic concentration of industry: Does natural advantage explain agglomeration? American Economic, Review Papers and Proceedings, 89(2), 311-316.
Gabaix, X., (1999). Zipf’s law for cities: An explanation. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(3):739-767.
Gabaix, X., and R. Ibragimov, (2011). Rank-1/2: A simple way to improve the OLS estimation of tail exponents. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 29(1): 24-39.
Gabaix, X., and Y. M. Ioannides, (2004). The evolution of city size distributions. Handbook of urban and regional economics, Vol. 4, J. V. Henderson and J. F. Thisse, eds. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, North-Holland, 2341-2378.
Galor, O., (1996). Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models. The Economic Journal, Vol. 106(437): 1056-1069.
Garmestani, A. S., C. R. Allen, and C. M. Gallagher, (2008). Power laws, discontinuities and regional city size distributions. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 68: 209–216.
Giesen, K., A. Zimmermann, and J. Suedekum, (2010). The size distribution across all cities – double Pareto lognormal strikes. Journal of Urban Economics, 68: 129–137.
Glaeser, E. L., and J. Gyourko, (2005). Urban Decline and Durable Housing. Journal of Political Economy, 113(2): 345-375.
Glaeser, E. L., G. A. M. Ponzetto, and K. Tobio, (2011). Cities, Skills, and Regional Change. Forthcoming in Regional Studies.
González-Val, R., (2010). The Evolution of the US City Size Distribution from a Long-run Perspective (1900–2000). Journal of Regional Science, 50(5): 952–972.
Hamilton, J. D., (1994). Time Series Analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Henderson, J. V., and A. Venables, (2009). The Dynamics of City Formation. Review of Economic Dynamics, 12: 233–254.
Henderson, J. V., and H. G. Wang, (2007). Urbanization and city growth: The role of institutions. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 37(3): 283–313.
Im, K. S., M. H. Pesaran, and Y. Shin, (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115: 53–74.
Ioannides, Y. M. and H. G. Overman, (2003). Zipf’s law for cities: an empirical examination. Regional Science and Urban Economics 33, 127-137.
Kim, S., (2000). Urban development in the United States. Southern Economic Journal 66, 855-880.
Kim, S., and R. A. Margo, (2004). Historical perspectives on U.S. Economic Geography. Handbook of urban and regional economics, vol. 4, J. V. Henderson and J. F. Thisse, eds. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, North-Holland, Chapter 66, pp. 2982-3019.
Lanaspa-Santolaria, L. F., A. Montañes, L. I. Olloqui-Cuartero, and F. Sanz-Gracia, (2002). The Phenomenon of Regional Inversion in the US manufacturing sector. Papers in Regional Science, 81 (4): 461-482
Lanaspa, L. F., F. Pueyo, and F. Sanz, (2011). Urban dynamics during the twentieth century. A tale of five European countries. Mimeo, Universidad de Zaragoza.
Levin, A., C.-F. Lin, and C.-S. J. Chu, (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108: 1–24.
Levy, M., (2009). Gibrat’s Law for (all) Cities: A Comment. American Economic Review, 99(4): 1672–1675.
Margo, R. A., (1992). Explaining the Postwar Suburbanization of Population in the United States: The Role of income. Journal of Urban Economics, 31: 301-310.
Melo, P. C., D. J. Graham, and R. B. Noland, (2009). A Meta-analysis of Estimates of Urban Agglomeration Economies. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 39: 332-342.
Michaels, G., F. Rauch, and S. J. Redding, (2010). Urbanization and Structural Transformation. Unpublished manuscript, London School of Economics.
Overman, H. G., and Y. M. Ioannides, (2001). Cross-Sectional Evolution of the U.S. City Size Distribution. Journal of Urban Economics 49, 543-566.
Quah, D., (1993). Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth. European Economic Review, 31: 426-434.
Pesaran, M. H., (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22: 265–312.
Phillips, P. C. B., and D. Sul, (2007). Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests. Econometrica, Vol. 75, 1771-1855.
Phillips, P. C. B., and D. Sul, (2009). Economic Transition and Growth. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24, 1153-1185.
Resende, M., (2004). Gibrat’s Law and the Growth of Cities in Brazil: A Panel Data Investigation. Urban Studies, Vol. 41(8): 1537-1549.
Rossi-Hansberg, E., and M. L. J. Wright, (2007). Urban structure and growth. Review of Economic Studies, 74: 597–624.
Rozenfeld, H. D., D. Rybski, X. Gabaix, and H. A. Makse, (2011). The Area and Population of Cities: New Insights from a Different Perspective on Cities. American Economic Review, forthcoming.
Said, S. E., and D. A. Dickey, (1984). Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order. Biometrika, 71(3): 599-607.
Sharma, S., (2003). Persistence and Stability in City Growth. Journal of Urban Economics 53, 300-320.
Simon, H., (1955). On a class of skew distribution functions. Biometrika, 42: 425-440.
Soo, K.T., (2007) Zipf's Law and Urban Growth in Malaysia. Urban Studies 44(1):1-14
U.S. Census Bureau, (2004). 2000 Census of Population and Housing, Population and Housing Unit Counts PHC-3-1, United States Summary. Washington, DC. Available at: http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2000/phc3-us-pt1.pdf
Vining, D. R., (1976). Autocorrelated Growth Rates and the Pareto Law: A Further Analysis. The Journal of Political Economy, 84(2): 369-380.
Available Versions of this Item
- Patterns in U.S. urban growth (1790–2000). (deposited 20. May 2011 12:49) [Currently Displayed]