Vasilescu, Denisa Maria and Aparaschivei, Larisa and Roman, Mihai Daniel (2012): Employment in Romania: evidence from a panel data analysis. Published in: International Journal of Social Science Tomorrow , Vol. 1(2), (5. March 2012): pp. 1-13.
Download (191kB) | Preview
The labour market in Romania is facing some imbalances arising from the negative demographic trends, legislative instability, poor correlation between the educational programs with the labour market, low labour productivity. The European Union labour market strategy aims at achieving 75% employment rate by 2020, for Romania the objective being 70% (Europe 2020). Although Romania has enjoyed robust economic growth for the most part of the 2000s, the labour market was experiencing large and increasing shortages of labour and skills, which coexisted with low participation rates, as well as excess supply of labour in declining sectors (mainly agriculture). The negative growth rate of the Romanian population, which has started in the early 1990s has already reduced the population. On top of this, there is the migration of the work force - most of the migrants are still included in the labour market statistics, as inactive, but are absent from the Romania’s labour market and might be partly responsible for the slow progress of employment rate in Romania. In this context, we aim to examine the employment rate in Romania, considering a panel data analysis over the period 1996-2009. The explanatory variables are the net migration rate, the mortality and birth rates, the unemployment rate, the real earnings, the secondary and tertiary education graduates.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Employment in Romania: evidence from a panel data analysis|
|Keywords:||labour supply, migration, education, panel data, Romania|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C23 - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O15 - Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies > J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J20 - General
|Depositing User:||Mihai Daniel Roman|
|Date Deposited:||27. Apr 2012 00:16|
|Last Modified:||22. Feb 2013 08:38|
Andreescu, V.; Alexandru, V., (2007), Transnational Labor Mobility of Romanians: Empirical: Findings on Recent Migratory Trends, Journal of Identity and Migration Studies, Vol 1, No. 1.
Apergis, N.; Theodosiou, I., (2008), The Employment –Wage Relationship: Was Keynes right after all?, American Review of Political Economy, Vol. 6, No.1, pp 40-50.
Arestis, P.; Mariscal, I.B.F., (1994), Wage Determination in the UK: Further Empirical Results Using Cointegration, Applied Economics, 26, pp. 417-424.
Baldwin-Edwards, M., (2005), Migration policies for a Romania within the European Union: Navigating between Scylla and Charybdis, in Grigore Silas and Ovidiu Simina (ed.): Migration, Asylum and Human Rights at the Eastern Border of the European Union, Jean Monnet European Center of Exellence, University of West Timisoara, available online at http://aei.pitt.edu/5283/1/MMO_WP7.pdf.
Baltagi, B. H., (2008), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Barbin, J. G., (2004), Recruitment of nurses in Romania by the Friuli-Venezia-Giulia region in Italy, in OECD 2004.
Barro, R., (1997), Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study, MIT Press, Cambridge.
Barro, R.; Lee, J-W., (1993), International Comparisons of Educational Attainment, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, pp. 363-394.
Baum, C. F., (2001), Residual diagnostics for cross-section time series regression models, The Stata Journal, Vol. 1, pp. 101–104.
Bender, K.; Theodossiou, I., (1999), The Real Wage-Employment Relationship, Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics, 21, pp. 621-637.
Cameron, A. C.; Trivedi, P.K., (2009), Microeconometrics Using Stata, Stata Press.
Carruth, A.; Schnabel, C., (1993), The Determination of Contract Wages in West Germany, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 95, pp. 297-310.
Card, D., (1999), The Causal Effect of Education on Earnings, in O. Ashenfelter and D. Card (eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol 3, Elsevier-North Holland.
Coats, D., (2008), Migration Myths: Employment, Wages and Labour Market Performance, Report of the Work Foundation, Lancaster University.
Cohen-Goldner, S.; Paserman, M. D., (20011), The dynamic impact of immigration on natives’ labor market outcomes: Evidence from Israel, European Economic Review, Vol. 55, pp. 1027–1045.
Commission Communication, (2006), The demographic future of Europe – From challenge to opportunity, COM(2006), available online at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52006DC0571:EN:NOT.
Christopoulos, D. K., (2005), A note on the relationship between real wages and employment, Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 32 No. 1, pp. 25-32.
Darby, J.; Wren-Lewis, S., (1993), Is There a Cointegration Vector for UK Wages?, Journal of Economic Studies, 20, pp. 87-115.
Davis, D.R.; Weinstein, D.E., (2002), Technological Superiority and Losses from Migration, NBER Working Paper No 8971.
Dayton-Johnson, J.; Pfeiffer, A.; Schuettler, K.; Schwinn, J., (2009), Migration and Employment, in Promoting Pro-Poor Growth: Employment, OECD, pp. 144-177.
Diminescu, D., (2004), Assessment and evaluation of bilateral labour recruitment agreements signed by Romania, in OECD (2004).
Drukker, D. M., (2003), Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models, The Stata Journal, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 168–177.
European Commission, (2011), Assessment of the 2011 national reform programme and convergence programme for Romania, Commission Staff Working Paper.
OECD, (2011), Recent Changes in Migration Movements and Policies, in International Migration Outlook: SOPEMI 2011.
Fasih, T, (2008), Linking Education Policy to Labor Market Outcomes, The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank.
Kohler, H. P.; Billari, F. C.; Ortega, J. A, (2006), Low Fertility in Europe: Causes, Implications and Policy Options, F. R. Harris (Ed.), „The Baby Bust:Who will do the Work? Who Will Pay the Taxes?” Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, pp. 48-109.
Krueger, A.; Lindahl, M., (2001), Education for Growth: Why and for Whom?, Journal of Economic Literature, 39, pp. 1101-1136.
Kunst, R. M., (2009), Econometric Methods for Panel Data – Part II, available online at http://homepage.univie.ac.at/robert.kunst/panels2e.pdf.
Machin, S., (2006), Social Disadvantage and Education Experiences, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No. 32.
McDonald, P.; Temple, J., (2008), Demographic and Labour Supply Futures for Australia, Report of the Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute.
Nitulescu, D.; Oancea, A.; Tanase, I., (2007). Cu bine, din Europa! Studiu despre migratia fortei de munca romanesti in Uniunea Europeana. Bucharest: Asociatia Nationala a Birourilor de Consiliere pentru Cetateni. OECD, (2010), The Economic and Social Benefits of Education, in Highlights from Education at a Glance. Özata, E.; Esen, E., (2010), An Econometric Analysis of Relationship Between Real Wages and Employment, Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, Vol. 10, No 2, pp. 55–70.
Peri, G., (2010), The Effect of Immigrants on U.S. Employment and Productivity, Federal Reserve Band of San Francisco (FRBSF) Economic Letter. Retrieved from http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2010/el2010-26.pdf.
Peri, G., (2009), The Effect of Immigration on Productivity: Evidence from U.S. States, NBER Working Paper 15507.
Peri, G.; Sparber, C., (2009), Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Vol.1 1, pp. 135–169.
Roman, M. D; Roman, M.; Marin, D., (2010), Migration Patterns in Central and Eastern Europe. Study Case on Romania, Proceedings of the 5th WSEAS International Conference on Economy and Management Transformation, available at http://www.wseas.us/e-library/conferences/2010/TimisoaraW/EMT/EMT2-53.pdf.
Sandu, D.; Radu, C.; Constantinescu, M.; Ciobanu, O., (2004), A country report on Romanian migration abroad: stocks and flows after 1989, Prague Multicultural Centre, available at http://aa.ecn.cz/img_upload/f76c21488a048c95bc0a5f12deece153/Romanian_ Migration_Abroad.pdf.
Smith, J.; Hagan J., (1993), Multivariate Cointegration and Error Correction Models: An Application to Manufacturing Activity in Australia, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 40, pp. 184-198.
Suedekum, J.; Blien, U., (2004), Wages and Employment Growth: Disaggregated Evidence for West Germany, Discussion Paper No. 1128, Institute for the Study of Labour.
Wooldridge, J. M., (2002), Introductory econometrics – A modern approach, Second Edition, pp. 501-528.