Sugawara, Shinya (2012): A nonparametric Bayesian approach for counterfactual prediction with an application to the Japanese private nursing home market.
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This paper proposes a new inferential framework for structural econometric models using a nonparametric Bayesian approach. Although estimation methods based on moment conditions can employ a flexible estimation without distributional assumptions, they have difficulty conducting a prediction analysis. I propose a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for an estimation and prediction analysis. My methodology is applied to an empirical analysis of the Japanese private nursing home market. This market has a sticky economic circumstance, and my prediction simulates an intervention that removes this circumstance. The prediction result implies that the outdated circumstance in this market is harmful for consumers today.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||A nonparametric Bayesian approach for counterfactual prediction with an application to the Japanese private nursing home market|
|English Title:||A nonparametric Bayesian approach for counterfactual prediction with an application to the Japanese private nursing home market|
|Keywords:||Nonparametric Bayes; Nonlinear simultaneous equation model; Prediction; Industrial organization; Nursing home; Long-term care in Japan|
|Subjects:||J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J14 - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
L - Industrial Organization > L1 - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance > L11 - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General
|Depositing User:||Shinya Sugawara|
|Date Deposited:||24. Oct 2012 14:34|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 02:03|
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