Moniz, António and Godinho, Manuel M. (2001): A análise prospectiva como ferramenta de política de inovação: uma perspectiva socioeconómica. Published in: ENSIOT Proceedings. Globalização e Competitividade - Novos cenários para o trabalho No. 9 (March 2001): pp. 1-14.
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At the last National Conference of Industrial Sociology in Portugal (in March 1999) was presented a paper on the topic of “foresight as a technology and employment policy instrument” (A.B. Moniz) where there was a reference to the need of development of this kind of tools and instruments. This need is clear when one should neutralize the negative effects of such policies, and could support the positive influences, especially with the main aims of improvement of quality of working life. Thus, is today possible to make a first balance of the application in Portugal of a type of foresight analysis exercise: the Delphi method. After some of the uses of this method in Portugal on the fisheries socio-economical system and on the relation between information society and employment, we present in this paper a first assessment of such experiments and present some recommendations for future uses of this foresight technique. We conclude that they must be applied within the context of socio-economical perspectives, and not only the technological ones, although they should include that dimension.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||A análise prospectiva como ferramenta de política de inovação: uma perspectiva socioeconómica|
|English Title:||Foresight analysis as an innovation policy tool: a socio-economical approach|
|Keywords:||foresight; technology assessment; employment policy; technology policy; Portugal; socio-economical systems|
|Subjects:||J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J4 - Particular Labor Markets > J40 - General
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C9 - Design of Experiments > C90 - General
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights > O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
|Depositing User:||António Moniz|
|Date Deposited:||21. Dec 2007 14:21|
|Last Modified:||14. Feb 2013 14:45|
BETA: Enquête sur les technologies du futur par la méthodde Delphi, Strasbourg, BETA, 1995 Godet, Michel: Manual de prospectiva, Lisboa, Dom Quixote Helmer, Olaf: Convergence of Expert Opinion through Feedback, Santa Monica, Rand Co., 1964. Henshel, Richard: “Sociology and Social Forecasting”, Annual Review of Sociology, nº 8, 1982 Héraud, J-A; Munier, F.; Nanopoulos, K.: “Méthode Delphi: une étude de cas sur les technologies du futur”, Futuribles, 1997 Martin, Ben: “Foresight in Science and Technology” in Technology Analysis & Strategic Management vol. 7 (1995), no. 2 NISTEP: The Fifth Technology Forecast Survey - Future Technology in Japan, NISTEP, STA, Toquio, 1992.
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