Chebbi, Houssem Eddine and Lachaal, Lassaad (2007): Agricultural sector and economic growth in Tunisia: Evidence from co-integration and error correction mechanism.
Download (93kB) | Preview
For the past two decades, Tunisia has been undertaken important structural reforms, which call in most cases for market and trade liberalization (agricultural structural adjustment program, GATT reforms, free trade area with the European Union). The private-led type of growth strategy with less government intervention has culminated these last years into a more rapid economic growth and openness. Within this context, this paper examines the agricultural sector role into the economic growth and its interactions with the other sectors using time-series co-integration techniques. We use annual data from 1961 to 2005 to estimate a VAR model that includes GDP indices of five sectors in Tunisian economy. Empirical results from this study indicate that in the long-run all economic sectors tend to move together (co-integrate). But, in the short-run, the agricultural sector seems to have a limited role as a driving force for the growth of the other sectors of the economy. In addition, growth of the agricultural output may not be conducive directly to non-agricultural economic sector in the short-run.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Agricultural sector and economic growth in Tunisia: Evidence from co-integration and error correction mechanism|
|Keywords:||cointegration, economic growth, agricultural sector, Tunisia|
|Subjects:||O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q18 - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
|Depositing User:||Houssem Eddine Chebbi|
|Date Deposited:||13. Jun 2008 11:13|
|Last Modified:||14. Feb 2013 04:39|
Adelman, I., (1995), “Beyond Export-Led Growth”, in Adelman, I. (eds), Institutions and Development Strategies: The Selected Essays of Irma Adelman, Vol. 1, Edward Elgar, Brookfield, Vermont, pp. 290–302.
Adelman, I., Bourniaux, J. and Waelbroeck, J., (1995), “Agricultural Development-led Industrialization in a Global Perspective”, in Adelman, I. (eds), Institutions and Development Strategies: The Selected Essays of Irma Adelman, Vol. 1, Edward Elgar, Brookfield, Vermont, pp. 303–322.
Ben Kaabia, M. and Gil, J.M. (2000), “Short- and long-run effects of macroeconomic variables on the Spanish agricultural sector”, European Review of Agriculture Economics, Vol. 27 (4), pp. 449-471.
Block, S. A. (1999), “Agriculture and economic growth in Ethiopia: growth multipliers from a four-sector simulation”, Agricultural Economics, Vol. 20, pp. 241-252.
Boswijk, H.P. (1995), “Efficient Inference on cointegration parameters in structural error correction models”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 69, pp. 133-158.
Chaudhuri, K. and Rao, R. K. (2004), “Output fluctuations in Indian agriculture and industry: a reexamination”, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 26, pp. 223–237.
Delgado, C. (1994), Agricultural growth linkages in sub-Saharan Africa, Washington, DC, US Agency for International Development.
Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979), “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, pp. 427-31.
Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981), “Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root”. Econometrica, Vol. 49 (4), pp. 1057-1072.
Engle, R., Hendry, D. and Richard, F. D. (1983), “Exogeneity”. Econometrica, Vol. 51 (2), 277-304.
Ericsson, N., Hendry, D., Mizon, G., (1998), “Exogeneity, cointegration and economic policy analysis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 16 (4), 370-387.
Fei, J. C. and Ranis, G. (1964), Development of the labour-supply economy: theory and policy, Irwin, IL, Homewood.
Haggblade, S., Hazell, P. and Brown, J. (1989), “Farm – nonfarm linkages in rural sub-Saharan Africa, World Development, vol. 17(8), pp. 1173-1201.
Harris, R. (1995), Using cointegration analysis in econometric modelling, University of Portsmouth. Prentice Hall, Harvester Wheatsheaf. London.
Hazell, P. and Röell, A. (1983), Rural growth linkages: household expenditure patterns in Malaysia and Nigeria, Research Report n°41, International Food Policy Research Institute.
Henneberry, S. R., Khan, M. E. and Piewthongngam, K. (2000), “An analysis of industrial – agricultural interactions: a case study in Pakistan”, Agricultural Economics, Vol. 22, pp.17-27.
Hirschman, A.O. (1958), The strategy of economic development, NewHaven, Yale University Press.
Humpheries, H. and Knowles, S. (1998), “Does agricultural contribute to economic growth? Some empirical evidence”, Applied Economics, Vol. 30, pp. 775-781.
Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistics analysis of cointegration vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 12, pp. 231-254.
Johansen, S. (1995a), “Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration”. Journal of Econometrics, vol. 69, pp. 111-132.
Johansen, S. (1995b), Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990), “Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration-with applications to the demand for money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 52, pp. 169-210.
Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1992), “Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 53, pp. 211-244.
Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1994), “Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure: an application to the ISLM model”. Journal of Econometrics, vol. 63, pp. 7-36.
Kanwar, S. (2000), “Does the dog wag the tail or the tail the dog? cointegration of indian agriculture with nonagriculture”. Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 22 (5), pp. 533-556.
Katircioglu, S. T. (2006), “Causality between agriculture and economic growth in a small nation under political isolation: A case from North Cyprus”, International Journal of Social Economics, Vol. 33 (4), pp. 331-343.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992), “Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of unit root”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 54, pp 159-178.
Lewis, W. A. (1954), “Economic development with unlimited supplies of labor”, Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 22, pp. 139-191.
Lütkepohl, H. (1993), Introduction to multiple time series, Spring Verlag, Berlin.
Mosconi, R. (1998), MALCOLM: the theory and practice of cointegration analysis in RATS, Cafoscarina, Venezia.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin Y. and Smith R. J. (2000), “Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 97 (2), pp. 293-343.
Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (1998), “Generalised impulse response analysis in lineal multivariate models”, Economics Letters, vol. 58, pp. 17-29.
Ranis, G. and Fei J. C. (1961), “A theory of economic development”, American Economic Review, vol. 51, pp. 533-558.
Tiffin, R. and Irz, X. (2006), “Is agriculture the engine of growth?”, Agricultural Economics, vol. 35 (1), pp. 79-89.
Timmer, C.P. (1988), “The agricultural transformation” in H. Chenery and T.N. Srinivasan (eds), Handbook of Development Economics, Amsterdam, North Holland.
Yao, S. (2000), “How important is agriculture in China's economic growth?”, Oxford Development Studies, vol. 28 (1), pp. 33-49.