Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Economía de Galicia tras el COVID-19: prospectiva de escenarios.

González Laxe, Fernando and Da Rocha Alvarez, Jose Maria and Armesto Pina, José Francisco and Sanchez-Fernandez, Patricio and Lago-Peñas, Santiago (2020): Economía de Galicia tras el COVID-19: prospectiva de escenarios. Published in: Informe de Conxuntura Socioeconómica de Galicia , Vol. 2, No. I (8 May 2020): pp. 1-20.

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Abstract

This work estimates the impact of COVID-19 in the year 2020, drawing possible recovery scenarios in the medium term. For this purpose, two methodologies are combined: on the one hand, it anticipates the quarterly evolution throughout 2020 of the 30 branches of activity; on the other, scenario simulation is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model that anticipates the reaction of an economy to an exogenous shock. The results for the Galician economy show that the contraction in economic activity ranges between 8.5% of GDP in an optimistic scenario and 12.7% in a pessimistic one.

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