Keeley, Alexander Ryota and Matsumoto, Ken'ichi and Tanaka, Kenta and Sugiawan, Yogi and Managi, Shunsuke (2020): The Impact of Renewable Energy Generation on the Spot Market Price in Germany: Ex-Post Analysis using Boosting Method. Forthcoming in: The Energy Journal
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_102314.pdf Download (815kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This study combines regression analysis with machine learning analysis to study the merit order effect of renewable energy focusing on German market, the largest market in Europe with high renewable energy penetration. The results show that electricity from wind and solar sources reduced the spot market price by 9.64 €/MWh on average during the period from 2010 to 2017. Wind had a relatively stable impact across the day, ranging from 5.88 €/MWh to 8.04 €/MWh, while the solar energy impact varied greatly across different hours, ranging from 0.24 €/MWh to 11.78 €/MWh and having a stronger impact than wind during peak hours. The results also show characteristics of the interactions between renewable energy and spot market prices, including the slightly diminishing merit order effect of renewable energy at high generation volumes. Finally, a scenario-based analysis illustrates how different proportions of wind and solar energies affect the spot market price.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | The Impact of Renewable Energy Generation on the Spot Market Price in Germany: Ex-Post Analysis using Boosting Method |
English Title: | The Impact of Renewable Energy Generation on the Spot Market Price in Germany: Ex-Post Analysis using Boosting Method |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Renewable energy sources, Electricity spot price, Intermittency, Merit order effect, Boosting. |
Subjects: | Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q41 - Demand and Supply ; Prices Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q42 - Alternative Energy Sources Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q47 - Energy Forecasting Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth |
Item ID: | 102314 |
Depositing User: | Dr. Alexander Ryota Keeley |
Date Deposited: | 13 Aug 2020 07:57 |
Last Modified: | 13 Aug 2020 07:57 |
References: | Bublitz, A., D. Keles, and W. Fichtner (2017). “An Analysis of the Decline of Electricity Spot Prices in Europe: Who is to Blame?” Energy Policy, 107: 323–336. Carmona, P., F. Climent, and A. Momparler (2019). “Predicting Failure in the US Banking Sector: An Extreme Gradient Boosting Approach.” International Review of Economics & Finance 61: 304–323. Clò, S., A. Cataldi, and P. Zoppoli (2015). “The Merit-Order Effect in the Italian Power Market: The Impact of Solar and Wind Generation on National Wholesale Electricity Prices.” Energy Policy 77: 79–88. Cludius, J., H. Hermann, F.C. Matthes, and V. Graichen (2014). “MOE of Wind and Photovoltaic Electricity Generation in Germany 2008–2016: Estimation and Distributional Implications”. Energy Economics 44: 302–313. Cointe, B. and A. Nadaï (2018). Feed-In Tariffs in the European Union: Renewable Energy Policy, the Internal Electricity Market and Economic Expertise. Springer: Berlin. Conejo, A.J., J. Contreras, R. Espinola, and M.A. Plazas (2005). “Forecasting Electricity Prices for a Day-Ahead Pool-based Electric Energy Market.” International Journal of Forecasting 21(3): 435–462. De Vos, K., KU Leuven Energy Institute: Heverlee (2014). Factsheet on Negative Electricity Market Prices. Report. Dudek, G. (2016). “Multilayer Perceptron for GEFCom2014 Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting.” International Journal of Forecasting 32(3): 1057–1060. Foster, D. (2017). “xgboostExplainer: XGBoost Model Explainer.” R package version 0.1. https://github.com/AppliedDataSciencePartners/xgboostExplainer Frantzen, J. and E. Hauser (2012). "Kurzfristige Effekte der PV-Einspeisung auf den Grosshandelsstrompreis." Kurzstudie, Institut für ZukunftsEnergieSysteme (izes). Fraunhofer ISE (2019). Net Public Electricity Generation in Germany in 2018. Report. https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/en/documents/News/Stromerzeugung_2018_ 2_en.pdfAnnual Gelabert, L., X. Labandeira, and P. Linares (2011). “An Ex-Post Analysis of the Effect of Renewables and Cogeneration on Spanish Electricity Prices.” Energy Economics 33: S59–S65. Genoese, F., M. Genoese, and M. Wietschel (2010). “Occurrence of Negative Prices on the German Spot Market for Electricity and Their Influence on Balancing Power Markets.” In IEEE 2010 7th International Conference on the European Energy Market, 1–6. German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (2019). Zeitreihen zur Entwicklung der erneuerbaren Energien in Deutschland. Report. https://www.erneuerbareenergien. de/EE/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/zeitreihen-zur-entwicklung-der-erneuerbarenenergien-in-deutschland-1990- 2018.pdf;jsessionid=65CFA949366E207CA59C6E9CBB9C9643?__blob=publicationFile&v=20. March 10, 2019. Holttinen, H., K.O. Vogstad, A. Botterud, and R. Hirvonen. (2001). “Effects of Large Scale Wind Production on the Nordic Electricity Market.” Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference. Copenhagen: Denmark. International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). (2018). Renewable Capacity Statistics 2018. Report. IRENA: Abu Dhabi. Jónsson, T., P. Pinson, and H. Madsen (2010). “On the Market Impact of Wind Energy Forecasts.” Energy Economics 32(2): 313–320. Miller, P J., G.H. Lubke, D.B. McArtor, and C.S. Bergeman (2016). “Finding Structure in Data using Multivariate Tree Boosting.” Psychological Methods 21(4): 583. Mirakyan, A., M. Meyer-Renschhausen, and A. Koch (2017). “Composite Forecasting Approach, Application for Next-Day Electricity Price Forecasting.” Energy Economics 66: 228–237. Neubarth, J., O. Woll, C. Weber, and M. Gerecht (2006). “Beeinflussung der spot markt preise durch windstromerzeugung.” Energiewirtsch. Tagesfr 56: 42–45. Papadimitriou, T., P. Gogas, and E. Stathakis. (2014). “Forecasting Energy Markets using Support Vector Machines.” Energy Economics 44: 135–142. Quint, D. and S. Dahlke (2019). “The Impact of Wind Generation on Wholesale Electricity Market Prices in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator Energy Market: An Empirical Investigation.” Energy, 169: 456–466. Sáenz de Miera, G., P. del Río, and I. Vizcaíno (2008). “Analyzing the Impact of Renewable Electricity Support Schemes on Power Prices: the Case of Wind Electricity in Spain.” Energy Policy 36: 3345–3359. Sensfuß, F. (2011). “Analysen zum Merit-Order Effekt erneuerbarer Energien Update für das Jahr 2010.” Forschungsbericht. Fraunhofer Institut für System und Innovationsforschung (ISI). Sensfuß, F., M. Ragwitz, and M. Genoese (2008). “MOE: A Detailed Analysis of the Price Effect of Renewable Electricity Generation on Spot Market Prices in Germany.” Energy Policy 36(8): 3086–3094. Tian, H., B. Meng, and S. Wang (2010). “Day-Ahead Electricity Price Prediction based on Multiple ELM.” 2010 Chinese Control and Decision Conference, IEEE: 241–244. Weigt, H. (2009). “Germany’s Wind Energy: The Potential for Fossil Capacity Replacement and Cost Saving.” Applied Energy, 86(10): 1857–1863. Würzburg, K., X. Labandeira, and P. Linares (2013). “Renewable Generation and Electricity Prices: Taking Stock and New Evidence for Germany and Austria”. Energy Economics 40: S159–S171. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/102314 |