Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Sectoral dependence and contagion in the BRICS grouping: an application of the R-Vine copulas

Hendriks, Johannes Jurgens and Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo (2020): Sectoral dependence and contagion in the BRICS grouping: an application of the R-Vine copulas.

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Abstract

Advances in portfolio optimisation techniques have given rise to studies that aim to identify changes in correlation structures between markets in times of economic turmoil. This phenomenon is known as contagion. This article aims at providing a new approach to distinguish between contagion and interdependence, where interdependence occurs when the correlation between two assets is not significantly different in tranquil and turmoil markets. An R-Vine Copula approach is considered to estimate the dependence structures and bivariate copulas between the estimated volatility of different markets. Thereafter, the tail dependence coefficients are estimated and a simulation procedure is used to determine their levels of significance. This article also focuses on contagion and interdependence structures at a sectoral – rather than an aggregated - level of stock exchanges. Thus, this article analyses the contagion and interdependence structures of the Brazilian, Russian, Indian, Chinese, and South African financial, industrial, and resource sectors.The estimated models indicate only a limited amount of contagion and interdependence events. This is in line with other authors who found that the Brazilian, Russian, Indian, Chinese, and South African economies can be seen as a heterogeneous asset class. In cases where there is strong co-movement, interdependence rather than contagion is observed. This suggests that strong market co-movements during periods of financial shock may be a continuation of strong cross-market linkages, i.e. interdependence instead of contagion.

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