Kang, Wensheng and Ratti, Ronald A. and Vespignani, Joaquin L. (2020): Revising the Impact of Financial and Non-Financial Global Stock Market Volatility Shocks.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_103019.pdf Download (468kB) | Preview |
Abstract
We decompose global stock market volatility shocks into financial originated shocks and nonfinancial originated shocks. Global stock market volatility shocks arising from financial sources reduce substantially more global outputs and inflation than non-financial sources shocks. Financial stock market volatility shocks forecasts 16.85% and 16.88% of the variation in global growth and inflation, respectively. In contrast, the on-financial stock market volatility shocks forecasts only 8.0% and 2.19% of the variation in global growth and inflation. Beside this markable difference global interest/policy rate responds similarly to both shocks.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Revising the Impact of Financial and Non-Financial Global Stock Market Volatility Shocks |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Global, Stock market volatility Shocks, Monetary Policy, FAVAR |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E40 - General |
Item ID: | 103019 |
Depositing User: | Joaquin L. Vespignani |
Date Deposited: | 27 Sep 2020 18:23 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2020 18:23 |
References: | Ahir, H., Bloom, N. and Furceri, D., 2018. The world uncertainty index. Available at SSRN 3275033. Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. and Davis, S.J., 2016. Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), pp.1593-1636. Baumeister, C. and Peersman, G., 2013. Time-varying effects of oil supply shocks on the US economy. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 5(4), pp. 1-28. Bekaert, G., Hoerova, M. and Duca, M.L., 2013. Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(7), pp.771-788. Berger, T., Grabert, S. and Kempa, B., 2016. Global and country‐specific output growth uncertainty and macroeconomic performance. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 78(5), pp.694-716 Bloom, N., 2009. The impact of uncertainty shocks. econometrica, 77(3), pp.623-685. Bonciani, D. and Ricci, M., 2018. The global effects of global risk and uncertainty. Bouri, E. and Roubaud, D., 2018. Dynamic network of implied volatility transmission among US equities, strategic commodities, and BRICS equities. International Review of Financial Analysis, 57, pp.1-12. Bouri, E., Gupta, R., Hosseini, S. and Lau, C.K.M., 2018. Does global fear predict fear in BRICS stock markets? Evidence from a Bayesian Graphical Structural VAR model. Emerging Markets Review, 34, pp.124-142. Bouri, E., Lucey, B., and Roubaud, D. 2020. Dynamics and determinants of spillovers across the option-implied volatilities of US equities. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 75, 257-264. Caggianao, G., and Catelnuovo, E., 2019. Global Uncertainty. Monash University and University of Melbourne, available at https;//sites.google.com/site/efremcastenuovo/ Carriero, A., Clark, T.E. and Marcellino, M., 2018. Measuring uncertainty and its impact on the economy. Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(5), pp.799-815. Cesa-Bianchi, A., Pesaran, M.H. and Rebucci, A., 2018. Uncertainty and economic activity: A multicountry perspective. The Review of Financial Studies. Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E. and Figueres, J.M., 2020. Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in booms and busts. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(1), pp.125-155. Grossman, V., Mack, A. and Martinez-Garcia, E., 2014. A new database of global economic indicators. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 39(3), pp.163-197. Dedola, Luca & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries, European Economic Review, 49, pp 1543-1569. Hamilton, J.D., 2008. Oil and the macroeconomy. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd ed., edited by Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence Blume. Palgrave Macmillan. Doi: 10.1057/9780230226203.1215. Jurado, K., Ludvigson, S.C. and Ng, S., 2015. Measuring uncertainty. American Economic Review, 105(3), pp.1177-1216. Kang, W., Ratti, R.A. and Vespignani, J., 2020. Impact of global uncertainty on the global economy and large developed and developing economies. Applied Economics, 52(22), pp.2392-2407. Kilian, L., 2009. Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic Review, 99(3), pp.1053-69. Knotek, E.S. and Khan, S., 2011. How do households respond to uncertainty shocks?. Kansas City Federal Reserve Board Economic Review. Mumtaz, H. and Theodoridis, K., 2015. The international transmission of volatility shocks: An empirical analysis. Journal of the European Economic Association, 13(3), pp.512-533. Mumtaz, H. and Musso, A., 2019. The evolving impact of global, region-specific, and country-specific uncertainty. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, pp.1-16. Vespignani, J.L., and Ratti, R.A., 2016. Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy, Economic Modelling, 52, pp 822-837. Redl, C., 2017. The impact of uncertainty shocks in the United Kingdom. Ozturk, E.O. and Sheng, X.S., 2018. Measuring global and country-specific uncertainty. Journal of international money and finance, 88, pp.276-295. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/103019 |