GDP Growth Forecasts of the Reserve Bank of India – A Performance Assessment

Rajesh, Raj and Srivastava, Vineet (2020): GDP Growth Forecasts of the Reserve Bank of India – A Performance Assessment. Published in: RBI Bulletin No. October : pp. 113-122.

Abstract

This article evaluates the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) against final official estimates of GDP, which are normally released with a lag of about three years. During 1998-99 to 2016-17, on an average, growth projections underestimated realised growth. Forecast errors, committed in both directions, were free of any systematic bias, and remained modest in a cross-country context.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecast error accuracy performance GDP growth India
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E59 - Other

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