Gudum, Melis (2021): Growth Forecasts vs. Realizations: The Role of Stimulus and Stringency Measures during the Pandemic.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_108447.pdf Download (465kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between different institutions’ GDP growth forecasts for the year 2020 and the actual realized growth levels in the same year. To this end, we use data from the IMF and World Bank’s publications and show that on average, an economy has overperformed its expected growth rate when i) the sizes of announced fiscal and macro-financial stimulus measures are larger, ii) The extent of the government stringency measures is smaller, iii) the pre-pandemic level of GDP per capita is larger. Our results can be crucial for policy-makers when they design growth-oriented economic policies.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Growth Forecasts vs. Realizations: The Role of Stimulus and Stringency Measures during the Pandemic |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal stimulus, macro-financial measures, economic policy |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E60 - General E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General |
Item ID: | 108447 |
Depositing User: | Melis Gudum |
Date Deposited: | 25 Jun 2021 05:23 |
Last Modified: | 25 Jun 2021 05:23 |
References: | Aldenhoff, F-O. (2007). Are economic forecasts of the International Monetary Fund politically biased? A public choice analysis. Review of International Organizations, 2, 239-260. An, Z. Ball, L., Jalles, J., Loungani, P. (2019). Do IMF forecasts respect Okun’s law? Evidence for advanced and developing economies International Journal of Forecasting. 35 (3), 1131-1142. Batchelor, R. (2001). How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus Applied Economics. 33 (2), 225-235. Dreher, A., Marchesi, S., Vreeland, J. R, (2008). The political economy of IMF forecasts Public Choice. 137, 145-171 Elgin, C., Basbug, G., Yalaman, A. (2020). Economic Policy Responses to a Pandemic: Developing the COVID-19 Economic Stimulus Index. Covid Economics: Vetted and Real Time Papers, 3, 40-54 IMF (2020a). World Economic Outlook April 2020: The Great Lockdown, Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund. IMF (2020b). World Economic Outlook, October 2020: A Long and Difficult Ascent, Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund. IMF (2021). World Economic Outlook, October 2020: Managing Divergent Recoveries DC, International Monetary Fund. Pons, J. (2000). The accuracy of IMF and OECD forecasts for G7 countries Journal of Forecasting. 19 (1), 53-63. WB. (2020). Global Economic Prospects, June 2020. Washington, DC: World Bank Worldometers (2020). Link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/108447 |