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Analyse de la politique budgétaire en Côte d’ivoire à partir d’une estimation Bayésienne d’un modèle d'Equilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique (DSGE)

Koffi, Siméon (2021): Analyse de la politique budgétaire en Côte d’ivoire à partir d’une estimation Bayésienne d’un modèle d'Equilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique (DSGE).

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Abstract

This study sheds light on the effect of fiscal policy on the Ivorian economy by measuring the value of the different Keynesian multipliers and the possible origins of GDP fluctuation during the period of this study. For this paper, one preferred a Bayesian estimation of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model using data from the Direction des Prévisions, des Politiques et des Statistiques Economiques (DPPSE), the Direction Générale du Budget et des Finances (DGBF) and the World Bank database over the period 2000Q1-2019Q4. The results show that (i) the increase in public investment has a positive effect on household consumption, the private sector, and then on the economic activity. The Keynesian multiplier of public investment has been estimated at about , (ii) lowering tax rates is likely to boost the economy but its impact remains weak, (iii) public expenditures, particularly personnel expenditures, have a negative effect on the Ivorian economy.

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