L'impact du Brexit sur Israël et les États arabes voisins en période de crise du COVID-19

Kohnert, Dirk (2021): L'impact du Brexit sur Israël et les États arabes voisins en période de crise du COVID-19.

Abstract

ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ & ZUSAMMENFASSUNG : The combined impact of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic on British foreign- and trade relations to Israel and its Arab neighbours constitute a particularly sensitive case. A destabilization of these countries could impact seriously stability and security, not just of the Middle-East region, but on the whole world. So far, the preliminary effects are ambivalent. Whereas Britons entertained reasoned hope for a ‘Corona miracle’ and a marvellous economic recovery in 2021, the prospects for Israel, the occupied Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt were less rosy. Presumably, Brexit is likely to harm the United Kingdom in the medium and long run. The post-Brexit impact on Israel and its Arab neighbours will be negative as well, but probably only be felt in the medium and long term also. However, the direct and indirect negative effects of the global COVID-19 crisis will by far outdo the Brexit impact. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RÉSUMÉ : L'impact combiné du Brexit et de la pandémie de COVID-19 sur les relations étrangères et commerciales britanniques avec Israël et ses voisins arabes constitue un cas particulièrement sensible. Une déstabilisation de ces pays pourrait avoir de graves répercussions sur la stabilité et la sécurité, non seulement de la région du Moyen-Orient, mais du monde entier. Jusqu'à présent, les effets préliminaires sont ambivalents. Alors que les Britanniques nourrissaient un espoir raisonné d'un « miracle de Corona » et d'une merveilleuse reprise économique en 2021, les perspectives pour Israël, les territoires palestiniens occupés, le Liban, la Jordanie et l'Égypte étaient moins roses. Vraisemblablement, le Brexit est susceptible de nuire au Royaume-Uni à moyen et long terme. L'impact post-Brexit sur Israël et ses voisins arabes sera également négatif, mais ne se fera probablement sentir qu'à moyen et long terme également. Cependant, l'effet négatif direct et indirect de la crise mondiale du COVID-19 dépassera de loin l'impact du Brexit. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZUSAMMENFASSUNG : Die gemeinsamen Auswirkungen des Brexits und der COVID-19-Pandemie auf die britischen Außen- und Handelsbeziehungen zu Israel und seinen arabischen Nachbarn sind ein besonders heikler Fall. Eine Destabilisierung dieser Länder könnte die Stabilität und Sicherheit nicht nur im Nahen Osten, sondern auf der ganzen Welt ernsthaft gefährden. Bisher erscheinen die vorläufigen Effekte ambivalent. Während die Briten begründete Hoffnungen auf ein „Corona-Wunder“ und eine erstaunliche wirtschaftliche Erholung im Jahr 2021 hegen, sind die Aussichten für Israel, die besetzten palästinensischen Gebiete, den Libanon, Jordanien und Ägypten weniger rosig. Vermutlich wird der Brexit dem Vereinigten Königreich mittel- und langfristig schaden. Die post-Brexit Auswirkungen auf Israel und seine arabischen Nachbarn werden ebenfalls negativ s, aber vermutlich ebenfalls nur mittel- und langfristig zu spüren sein. Die direkten und indirekten negativen Effekte der weltweiten COVID-19-Krise werden jedoch die Folgen des Brexits bei weitem übertreffen.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The impact of Brexit on Israel and neighbouring Arab states in times of the COVID-19 crisis
• Language: French
• Keywords: Brexit, pandémie de COVID-19, Corona, croissance économique, Israël, Palestine, Liban, Jordanie, Egypte, Royaume-Uni, commerce international, zone de libre-échange, union douanière, Anglosphère
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration; F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F22 - International Migration; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F52 - National Security ; Economic Nationalism; F - International Economics > F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization > F63 - Economic Development; F - International Economics > F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization > F68 - Policy; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I14 - Health and Inequality; N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics ; Industrial Structure ; Growth ; Fluctuations; N - Economic History > N4 - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation > N40 - General, International, or Comparative; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O24 - Trade Policy ; Factor Movement Policy ; Foreign Exchange Policy; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies; Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z13 - Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology ; Social and Economic Stratification

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