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The Co-Movement between Foreign Reserves, Economic Growth and Money Supply: Evidence from the WAMZ Countries

Joof, Foday (2021): The Co-Movement between Foreign Reserves, Economic Growth and Money Supply: Evidence from the WAMZ Countries.

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Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of foreign currency reserve and economic growth on money supply, using a panel data of five West African Monetary Zone (WAMZs) member states from 2001-2019. The study employed the dynamic Panel techniques (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square) and the Static method (Fixed Effect model) for robustness check. The long run results showed that foreign currency reserves (FCR) have a positive impact on money supply, implying that a one percent increase in foreign currency reserves augments money supply (M2) by 2.87%, 0.44% and 0.08%, respectively in the long run. Similarly, economic growth is associated with an increase in money supply in both models. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin Causality (2012) estimation revealed a feedback association between foreign currency reserve and money supply. This means that that foreign reserves and money supply are complementary. Conversely, a unidirectional causality moving from economic growth to M2 is observed, demonstrating that economic growth causes M2 and not otherwise. This outcome is explained by the QTM (quantity theory of money) in which the velocity of money is a positive function of total money supply. As money circulates in the economy as a result of a surge in investments, consequently increases money stock. Similarly, investment opportunities that are been exploited day-by-day explains the growing money stock. Central banks should endeavor to monitor the expansionary influence of net foreign assets (NFA) on money supply growth in the WAMZ by establishing suitable methods to sterilize foreign exchange infusions into the economy.

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