Impact des chocs d'incertitude liés au Covid-19 sur l’économie marocaine

Azzouzi, asmae and Bousselhamia, Ahmed (2021): Impact des chocs d'incertitude liés au Covid-19 sur l’économie marocaine.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to consider the impact of covid-19 uncertainty shocks on the Moroccan economy that focuses on two main dimensions: first, it provides estimates of the impact of uncertainty shocks in the different sectors of activity in Morocco; second, it allows us to estimate the uncertainty related to global time-varying shocks and to measure the impact of this uncertainty on a large number of variables while monitoring the effect of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks. In order to measure macroeconomic uncertainty, we propose a dynamic factor augmented (FAVAR) model. Empirical results suggest that the impact of uncertainty shocks on the different sectors of activity is heterogeneous. We find that the most affected sectors are those that are dependent on external demand, due to the substantial decline in demand for Morocco, plus the sanitary measures imposed...In addition, the Moroccan economy is struggling in posing and laying the foundations for economic recovery in the hotel and restaurant, mechanical engineering, electrical and metal industries, transportation, and textile industries. In addition, the shock of uncertainty has a lesser impact on the value added of education, health and social action next to financial and insurance activities.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Impact of uncertainty shocks related to the Covid-19 on the Moroccan economy
• Language: French
• Keywords: Covid-19, FAVAR, Uncertainty shocks, Moroccan economy, Sectors of activity.
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General; L - Industrial Organization > L6 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing; L - Industrial Organization > L6 - Industry Studies: Manufacturing > L60 - General; L - Industrial Organization > L7 - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction; L - Industrial Organization > L7 - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction > L70 - General; L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L80 - General; L - Industrial Organization > L9 - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities; L - Industrial Organization > L9 - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities > L90 - General; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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