Эконометрическая оценка влияния шоков на рынке нефти на макроэкономические показатели Российской Федерации с помощью GVAR моделирования

Zubarev, Andrey and Kirillova, Maria (2021): Эконометрическая оценка влияния шоков на рынке нефти на макроэкономические показатели Российской Федерации с помощью GVAR моделирования.

Abstract

In this paper we use a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to study the response of Russian macroeconomic indicators to external shocks. The model includes individual models for the world's largest economies and a model for the oil market. Our specification takes into account the peculiarities of the Russian economy and the persistence of variables in the oil market. We also obtained the impulse response functions to the oil supply shock in Saudi Arabia.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The Impact of Oil Market Shocks on the Macroeconomic Indicators of the Russian Federation: GVAR Approach
• Language: Russian
• Keywords: global vector autoregression, GVAR, oil prices, GDP, oil production, impulse response function
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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