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ABSENCE DU FINANCEMENT MONETAIRE DU TRESOR PUBLIC ET PERSISTANCE DE L’INFLATION : Le sens du phénomène

TEKILASAYA KAVUNZU, François (2021): ABSENCE DU FINANCEMENT MONETAIRE DU TRESOR PUBLIC ET PERSISTANCE DE L’INFLATION : Le sens du phénomène.

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Abstract

This article aimed to analyze the Congolese economic situation during the year 2020 with regard to the volatility observed in the indicators of the economic situation, including the evolution of monthly inflation and the exchange rate during the first eight months. The particular situation observed in the first eight months consisted in the fact that during the first four months, i.e. from January to April, there was recourse to monetary financing of the public deficit but with a lower level of inflation comparatively to the period from May to August during which there was no monetary financing with the consequence of the persistence and aggravation of inflationary pressures. The objective of the paper was to provide explanations for this evolution and to deduce the problem root. In terms of explanations, three explanatory factors have been identified. First, factors related to fiscal policy, second, factors related to the economic situation, and third, factors related to the implementation of monetary policy. As for the fiscal factors, they concern the breakdown of public expenditures in domestic currency that supplies inflation and that in foreign currency that erodes reserves; as for the conjuncture factors, they concern the effects of the COVID-19 and the contrary effects produced by the fiscal easing measures and from the monetary point of view, the maintenance of the negative real interest rate from May to July 2020. The problem root lies in the budgetary tensions and the dollarized nature of the economy.

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