Enflasyonist Koşullarda Türkiye Ekonomisine İlişkin Bir Para Arzı Tahmini

Eryilmaz, Unal (2021): Enflasyonist Koşullarda Türkiye Ekonomisine İlişkin Bir Para Arzı Tahmini.

Abstract

The central bank, whose main objective of monetary policies is to control inflation, can intervene in total expenditures on goods and services in the economy by affecting the growth rate of money and credit supply. In this study, it is aimed to examine the ex-post prediction of the real M2 series, an aggregate of money supply, which is both an intermediate target and an information variable for the Central Bank, and also the relationship between Real M2 and Industrial Production. In this framework, various prediction models were formed with time series analysis and the results obtained from these models were discussed. Para politikalarının temel amacı enflasyonu kontrol etmek olan merkez bankası, para ve kredi arzının büyüme oranını etkileyerek, ekonomideki mal ve hizmetlere yapılan toplam harcamalara müdahale edebilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Merkez Bankası açısından hem bir ara hedef hem de bir bilgi değişkeni olan para arzı toplamlarından reel M2 serisinin ex-post öngörüsü ve ayrıca Reel M2 ile Sanayi Üretimi arasındaki ilişkini incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu çerçevede, zaman serisi analizi ile bazı öngörü modelleri oluşturularak söz konusu modellerden elde edilen sonuçlar tartışılmıştır.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Money Supply Forecast for the Turkish Economy in Inflationary Conditions
• Language: Turkish
• Keywords: Para Arzı, M2, Merkez Bankası, Para Politikası, ARMA, VAR, Money Supply, M2, Central Bank, Monetary Policy
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies

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