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Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique

Abdallah, Ali (2022): Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique.

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Abstract

The real exchange rate alone cannot decide the fate of growth. The wider and less aggregative the model adopted, the lower is the effect of a currency depreciation. Especially when the depreciation monitored over a long period of time and integrated into the behaviour of economic actors. In the model elaborated here, a successful real depreciation requires a powerful Marshall-Lerner effect that offsets the depressive effects on consumption and investment, in the presence of a strong contribution of the manufacturing sector to production and a high share of local products in consumption, which is extremely sensitive at the level of urban employment. Otherwise, a contraction in output is to expect, all the stronger as the real wage is sensitive to tensions in the goods market. Growth-oriented policies should provide an enabling environment rather than follow an endless depreciation of the currency, which without support would eventually exhaust its effects, if any, and lead to adverse effects. A comprehensive approach in terms of the portfolio of instruments is more than necessary.

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