Does democracy guarantee the resilience of African economies? Analysis based on a duration model

Koffi, Siméon (2022): Does democracy guarantee the resilience of African economies? Analysis based on a duration model.

Abstract

Based on a panel of 144 developing countries for the period from 1960 to 2020 and using the duration model, our estimates focused on two (02) groups of countries, namely African countries, and countries outside Africa. For the latter, the results showed that democracy is a factor that strengthens their resilience insofar as it intervenes to support growth spells in the event of negative external shocks. In other words, democracy lengthens the duration of growth spells and promotes more resilient and sustainable growth. For African countries, however, the opposite effect occurs. Indeed, African countries with democratic regimes have a much shorter growth survival rate than autocratic ones.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: duration model, resilience, growth spells
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C10 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C18 - Methodological Issues: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics

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