A Model for Prediction of the Buffalo and Cattle male Calves' live Weight

Soliman, Ibrahim (2021): A Model for Prediction of the Buffalo and Cattle male Calves' live Weight. Published in: Journal of Buffalo Science, 2021, 10, 67-74 No. 10 (September 2021): pp. 67-74.

Abstract

The buffalo and cattle population in Egypt reached about 4.898,893 and 3,476,396 heads, respectively, in 2019. The buffalo and cattle meat production represented around 43% and 45% of the total meat production in Egypt, respectively, and the average carcass weight of buffalo and cattle reached 318 kg and 336Kg in 2019. About 50% of livestock numbers are slaughtered off-slaughter houses due to a shortage in the capacity of slaughterhouses and other financial and administrative reasons. The conducted field survey of this study showed that the majority of Egyptian livestock markets lack live weight scales, and if available, they are expensive and frightening for the animals. Therefore, numerous feedlot enterprises hire an agent who can visually forecast the expected live weight of the exhibited feeder calves for sale in the market at a high charge. Most of the models to predict the weight of live cattle-bulls knowing the chest circumference were lacking such models for buffalo-bulls and were linear models that fit only limited periods of cattle-fattening. The sample survey included 500 buffalo males and 340 cattle males of different live weights from 14 villages in 4 provinces in the Nile Delta. The data were used to estimate the best-fitted model for Egyptian livestock. This study showed that the best-fitted model was curved linear. It was a quadratic form. For empirical application, the study designed a table to predict the live weight of buffalo and cattle males at a range of 100-200 cm chest circumference. The results showed that a 1% increase in the chest circumference was associated with a 2.4% and 2.8% increase in the buffalo and cattle male's circumference, which implicitly reflects higher live weight gain of cattle than buffalo males and better meat quality. Therefore, the farm price of cattle feeder males surpassed the buffalo by $1000.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Prediction Model, Fed Calves, Egyptian Livestock Maekets.
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q0 - General > Q02 - Commodity Markets; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness

References

FAOSTAT, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, fao.org Feb. 10 2021.

Soliman I, Gaber M, Mashhour A. Animal products marketing systems in Egypt. The final report (540 pages), A contracted research project of Zagazig University with the Academy of Scientific Research and Technology (2004-2006), Cairo, Egypt 2006.

Molina-Flores B, Velasco G, Loza S, Soliman I. Socio-cultural factors determining roles and responsibilities in traditional Cattle production systems within rural communities of Upper Egypt. Casasús I, et al. (eds.), Animal farming and environmental interactions in the Mediterranean region, EAAP publication No. 131, © Wageningen Academic Publishers 2012; pp. 241-247. https://doi.org/10.3920/978-90-8686-741-7_30

Fioretti, Mauro. An alternative vision-based A system that can calculate the circumference of the chest of cattle to estimate their body weight " Presented at the International Committee for Animal Recording (ICAR) meeting on May 30, in Cork, Ireland 2012.

Soliman I. Present Situation and Future Perspective of Buffalo Production in Africa. The Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences 2012; (4): 657-664.

Brody S, Davis HP, Ragsdale AC. Relation between Live Weight and Chest Circumference in Dairy Cattle of Unknown Age. University of Missouri College of Agriculture Agricultural Experiment Station, Research Bulletin 262, June 1937.

Abdel Hadi OMA, Babiker SA, Prediction of zebu cattle live weight using live animal measurements. Livestock Research for Rural Development 2009; 21(8).

Khalafalla IEE, Atta M, El Tahir IE, Mohammed AM. Effect of Body Weight on Slaughtering Performance and Carcass Measurements of Sudan Baggara Bulls. Livestock Research for Rural Development 2011; 23(3).

Soliman I. Buffalo Share in Small Farmer Welfare Under Intensive Agricultural System: The Case Study of Egypt. Buffalo Bulletin 2013; 32(1): 132-140.

Soliman I. Role of Dairy Buffalo in Egypt Food Security. Buffalo Newsletters, Issue No. 23rd, FAO, Rome Italy 2008.

Fitch J, Soliman I. Livestock and small farmer Labor supply. in "Migration, mechanization, and Agricultural Labor Markets in Egypt", Richards A, Martin P, Eds. West-view Press, Boulder, Colorado, USA 1983; pp. 45 -77. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429047107-3