Caruso, Raul (2008): Al Qaeda as a Tournament: Empirical Evidence.
Download (147kB) | Preview
This short paper aims to find an empirical evidence that al Qaeda behaves as a contest organizer rewarding an indivisible prize – namely, official membership and economic rewards – to candidate extremists groups. Would-be terrorists must then compete with each other to prove their commitment and ability. Hence to maximize their own probability of winning the prize, each group (maximizes its effort) tries to make attacks at least equally destructive as the foregoing attacks. The testable implication is that: the number of victims must depend upon the number of victims of past attacks. Resulting evidence confirms the hypothesis. At the same time, results show that al Qaeda-style terrorist activity depends also upon grievance for poverty and socio-economic conditions.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Al Qaeda as a Tournament: Empirical Evidence|
|Keywords:||Terrorism, al Qaeda, Contest Theory, Tournament, Information|
|Subjects:||H - Public Economics > H4 - Publicly Provided Goods > H40 - General
D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D74 - Conflict ; Conflict Resolution ; Alliances ; Revolutions
D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D80 - General
|Depositing User:||Raul Caruso|
|Date Deposited:||21. Nov 2008 16:44|
|Last Modified:||16. Feb 2013 00:01|
ABADIE A., (2006), Poverty, Political Freedom and the Roots of Terrorism, The American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, vol.96, n.2, pp. 50-56.
BERREBI, C., (2007), Evidence about the Link Between Education, Poverty and Terrorism among Palestinians, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, vol. 13, n.1, , article 2, http://www.bepress.com/peps/vol13/iss1/2.
CARUSO R., LOCATELLI A., (2008), Deadly Contests: An Economic Note on al Qaeda’s Reward System, The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, vol. 3, n. 2, pp. 62-67.
DIXIT A., (1987), Strategic Behavior in Contests, The American Economic Review, vol. 77, n. 5, pp. 891-898. FREYTAG A., KRUGER J.J., SCHNEIDER F., (2008), The Orginis of Terrorism, Cross Country Estimates on socio economic determinants of terrorism, paper presented at the second NEAT workshop, Bruxelles, September 2008.
KRUEGER A., MALECKOVA J,, (2003) Education, Poverty, and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 17, n. 4, pp. 119-144 LI Q., (2005), Does Democracy Promote or reduce Transnational Terrorist incidents?, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 49, n.2, pp.278-297.
MOLDOVANU B., SELA A., (2001) The Optimal Allocation of Prizes in Contests, The American Economic Review, vol. 91, n. 3, pp. 542-558.
MOLDOVANU B., SELA A., SHI X, (2007), Contests for Status, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 115, n.2, pp. 338-363.
MORGAN J., VARDY F., The Value of Commitment in contests and tournaments when observation is costly, Games and Economic Behavior, vol. 60, n.2, pp. 326-338
NTI K., (2004), Maximum Efforts in Contests with Asymmetric Valuations, European Journal of Political Economy, vol. 20, pp. 1059-1066. NTI K., (1999), Rent-Seeking with Asymmetric Valuations, Public Choice, vol. 98, 1999, pp. 415-430.
O’KEEFFE M., VISCUSI K., ZECKHAUSER R., (1984), Economic Contests: Comparative Reward Schemes, Journal of Labor Economics, vol. 2, n. 1, pp. 27-56.
ROHNER D., FREY B.S., (2007), Blood and Ink! The Common-interest-game between terrorist and the media, Public Choice, vol. 133, pp. 129-145.
ROSEN S., (1986), Prizes and Incentives in Elimination Tournaments, The American Economic Review, vol. 76, n. 4, pp. 701-715.
TULLOCK G., Efficient Rent Seeking, in J. Buchanan, R. Tollison, G. Tullock, (eds.), Toward a Theory of the Rent-seeking Society, College Station, TX, Texas A&M University Press, 1980, pp. 97-112