Synchronisation cyclique globale entre les économies subsahariennes et les économies avancées

Menounga, François Patrick and Manga Akoa, Armand (2023): Synchronisation cyclique globale entre les économies subsahariennes et les économies avancées.

Abstract

The intensification of international trade, reinforced by the interconnection of financial markets and the appearance of common economic shocks are the elements that contribute to explaining the co-movements of advanced and sub-Saharan economies. In this study, it is a question of measuring the global cyclical synchronization of the economies referred to above, over the period going from 1981.T1 to 2021.T1, from the concordance index of Harding and Pagan (2006). Overall, this analysis shows that the level of cyclical synchronization between the economies of sub-saharan and advanced countries is high enough to justify the strong economic dependence between these two groups of countries.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Cyclical Synchronization Between Sub-Saharan Economies and Advanced Economies
• Language: French
• Keywords: Synchronization, concordance index, economic dependence.
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E39 - Other; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F19 - Other

References

Agnello L., Caporale G. et Sousa R. (2013). « Fiscal Adjustments and Business Cycle Synchronization », Discussion paper, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin.

Artis M., Chouliarakis G. et Harischandra P. (2009). « Business Cycle Synchronization since 1880 », the International Symposium on Business Cycle Behavior in Historical Perspective, University of Manchester.

Artis, M. et Zhang, W. (1997). « Volatility Clustering and Volatility Transmission: A Non-Parametric View of ERM Exchange Rates », C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1594.

Baffes. J, Ayhan Kose. M, Ohnsorge. F et Stocker. M (2015). « The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses », Note de la Banque Mondiale, décembre 2015.

Bernanke Ben S. et Gertler M. (1995). Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall 1995, n° 9, pages. 27-48.

Bernanke Ben, Gertler M et Gilchrist S (1999). The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework. In J.B. Taylor et M. Woodford(dir.), Handbook of Macroeconomic, volume 1C, Chap 21, Amsterdam, Elsevier Science.

Bry G., et Boschan C. (1971). « Cyclical Analysis of Time Series : Selected Procedures and Computer Programs », NBER Technical, Paper, n° 20.

Calvo G. et Reinhart C. (1996). « Capital flows to emerging countries: Is there evidence of contagion effects? », dans Calvo G., Goldestein M. et Hochreiter E., Edition Private capital flows to emerging markets, Institute for International Economics.

Elgahry, B, I. (2015). « La synchronisation des cycles économiques entre pays avancés et pays émergents : couplage ou découplage ? ». Economies et finances. Université du Havre, 2014. Français. ffNNT : 2014LEHA0015ff. fftel-01132.

Fathi E. (2010), « Les Déterminants de la synchronisation cyclique Tunisie-Zone Euro ». Revue de l'OFCE no 115 : pp. 33 – 62.

Frankel J. et Rose A. (2000), « The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria », Economic Journal, n° 108, pp. 1009-1025.

Harding D. ET Pagan, A. (2006). « Measurement of Business Cycles », Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, the University of Melbourne.

Helbing T., Berezin P., Kose A., KumhoF M., Laxton D. et Spatafora N. (2007). « Decoupling the Train? Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy », World Economic Outlook, pp. 121–160.

Imbs J. (2004), « Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization », The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages. 723-734.

Kalemli-Ozcan, S., Sørensen, B. E. et Yosha, O. (2001). « Economic integration, industrial specilization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations », Journal of International Economics, 55, pp. 107-137.

Kose A., Otrok C. et Prasad E. (2008). « Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling? », National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Working Paper 14292. Disponible sur: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14292.

Kose A., Rogoff K., Prasad E. et Wei S. (2003). « Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries ». IMF Occasional Papers 220.

Lévy, J. (2008). « L’invention du monde. Une géographie de la mondialisation », Paris, Presses de Sciences Po. Page-11.

Majetti R. (2012). « Caractérisation et datation des cycles économiques : le cas français ». Dalloz, Revue d'économie politique. 2012/3 Vol. 122, pages 365-403.

Mansouri B. (2019). « Une formule de trimestrialisation des séries temporelles annuelles ». Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales, Université Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech, Maroc. Pages 1-4.

Nachtigal V., Tomsik V et Votavova M. (2002), « Convergence of the Czech Economy and Other Transitive Countries toward the Level of the European Union Member Countries- Current Development and Prospects ».

Otto, G., Voss, G. ET Willard, L. (2001). « Understanding OECD Output correlations ». Research Discussion paper 2001-05.

Park Y. et Shin K. (2009), « Economic Integration and Changes in the Business Cycle in East Asia: Is the Region Decoupling from the Rest of the World? ». Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 8(1), pp. 107-140.

Ramey, G. et Ramey, A. V. (1995). Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth Author(s). The American Economic Review, Vol. 85, No. 5 (Dec., 1995), 1138-1151. Published by American Economic Association.

Romer P. (1986). « Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth », Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pp. 1002-37.

Romer, C.D et Romer, D.H (2004). A new measure of monetary shocks : Derivation and Implications. The american Economic Review, Vol 94, N°04, pages. 1055-1084.