Brexit Impact on the UK Trade Agreements

Ellalee, Haider and Alali, Walid Y. (2018): Brexit Impact on the UK Trade Agreements. Forthcoming in: (20 January 2018)

Abstract

The people of Great Britain said their word to leave the European Union. The Brexit consequences impact on international trade is negative and large. In the meantime, the ambition Great Britain post Brexit aims for new trade agreements while not explicit (clear) about the type and with whom these agreements. Meanwhile, we examine the UK options in this study, emphasising the substance of the Brexit negative trade impact on the UK and other major economic countries, including the EU. After reviewing all the alternative and potential options for UK trade agreements post-Brexit, we find no better substitutions to the EU agreement before Brexit.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Brexit, Gravity model, Trade predictions, Trade Agreement, Economics.
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade

References

Anderson JE, Van Wincoop E (2003) Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. American Economic Review 93(1): 170-192

Anderson JE, Larch M, Yotov YV (2015) Estimating general equilibrium trade policy effects: GE PPML. CESifo Working Paper No. 5592, CESifo, Munich

Anderson JE, Yotov YV (2016) Terms of trade and global efficiency effects of free trade agreements, 1990-2002. Journal of International Economics 99: 279-298

Baldwin RE (2016, ed.) Brexit beckons: Thinking ahead by leading economists. VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR press, London

Baldwin RE, Taglioni D (2007). Trade effects of the euro: A comparison of estimators. Journal of Economic Integration 22(4): 780-818

Baier SL, Bergstrand JH, Egger P, McLaughlin P (2008) Do economic integration agreements actually work? Issues in understanding the causes and consequences of the growth in regionalism. World Economy, 31(4): 461-497

Becker SO, Fetzer T, Novy D (2016) Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis. University of Warwick working paper no. 305, Warwick.

Bergeijk van PAG, Brakman S (2010) The gravity model in international trade. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

Ebell M (2016) Assessing the impact of trade agreements on trade. National Institute Economic Review, 238(1): R31-R42

Feenstra R (2016) Advanced international trade: Theory and evidence. Princeton University Press, Princeton

Grauwe de P (2016) How to prevent Brexit from damaging the EU. In: Baldwin RE (ed) Brexit beckons: Thinking ahead by leading economists. VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR press, London

Head K, Mayer T (2015) Gravity equations: Workhorse, toolkit, and cookbook. In: Gopinath G, Helpman E, Rogoff K (eds) Handbook of international economics (Volume 4). Elsevier-NH, Amsterdam

Johnson RC, Noguera G (2012) Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added. Journal of International Economics 86(2): 224-236

Kaplan LC, Kohl T, Martínez-Zarzoso I (2017). Supply-chain trade and labor market outcomes: The case of the 2004 EU enlargement. Forthcoming in Review of International Economics.

Kohl T (2014) Do we really know that trade agreements increase trade? Review of World Economics 150(3): 443-469

Kohl T, Brakman S, Garretsen JH (2016) Do trade agreements stimulate international trade differently? Evidence from 296 trade agreements. World Economy 39(1): 97-131

Koopman R, Wang Z, Wei S-J (2014) Tracing value-added and double counting in gross exports. American Economic Review 104: 459-494

Larch M, Yotov YV (2016) General equilibrium trade policy analysis with structural gravity. CESifo working paper no. 6020, CESifo, Munich

Los B, McCann P, Springford J, Thissen M (2017) The mismatch between local voting and the local economic consequences of Brexit. Regional Studies, 51(5): 786-800

Mayer T, Zignano S (2011). Notes on CEPII’s distances measures: The GeoDist database. CEPII Working paper no. 2011-25, CEPII, Paris.

Miles D (2016) Brexit realism: What economists know about costs and voter motives. In: Baldwin RE (ed) Brexit beckons: Thinking ahead by leading economists. VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR press, London.

Timmer MP, Dietzenbacher E, Los B, Stehrer R, Vries de GJ (2015) An illustrated user guide to the World Input–Output Database: the case of global automotive production. Review of International Economics 23: 575-605

Timmer MP, Los B, Stehrer R, Vries de GJ (2016) An anatomy of the global trade slowdown based on the WIOD 2016 release. GGDC research memorandum 162, University of Groningen, Groningen.