Effect of climate change on Thailand’s agriculture: New results

Attavanich, Witsanu (2017): Effect of climate change on Thailand’s agriculture: New results.

Abstract

The objectives of this study are to analyze the effect of climate change on farmland values in Thailand and investigate implications for greenhouse warming under future climate change and socio-economic scenarios using the Ricardian approach allowing a variety of the adaptations that farmers make in response to changing economic and climate conditions. The main sources of data are obtained from 2011/2012 national agricultural household socio economics survey conducted by Office of Agricultural Economics, Thailand Meteorology Department, National Economic and Social Development Board, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This study finds that both mean and variation of temperature and precipitation significantly determine farmland values. Overall, the accumulative damage values from 2011/2012 crop year to 2041-2050 period range from $17.499 billion to $83.826 billion. Projected climate change impacts on the irrigated farms are equal to 6.666 billion to $20.406 billion, while the impacts on rainfed farms range from $10.833 billion to $63.420 billion. By downscaling the analysis to the province level, this study finds that irrigated farms in all provinces will be negatively affected by the climate change across all climate scenarios, while results are mixed for the rainfed farm subsample. To mitigate the climate change impacts, Government should provide the support of the collection, development and building the database, knowledge and local wisdom with the cooperation from all sectors for managing the risks arising from climate change and at the same time establish and develop technology in response to climate change. It is also recommended to raise awareness of climate change impacts and convey information, knowledge and technology to development parties at all levels.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Climate change; Thailand; Agriculture; Ricardian approach; Impact
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming

References

Adams, R. M., B. A. McCarl, K. Segerson, C. Rosenzweig, K. J. Bryant, B. L. Dixon, J. R. Conner, R. E. Evenson, and D. S. Ojima. 1999. The economic effects of climate change on u.s. agriculture. In The impact of climate change on U.S.agriculture.,eds R. Mendelsohn and J. Newmann: Cambridge University Press, London: 180.0054.

Buddhaboon, C., S.Kongton, and A. Jintrawet. 2005. Climate scenario verification and impact on rain0.00fed rice production. InThe study of future climate change impact on water resource and rain0.00fed agricultural production.,eds S. Chinvanna and A. Snidvongs. Proceedings of the APN CAPABLE CB0.0001 Synthesis Workshop, Vientaine, Lao PDR, 290.0030 July 2004. SEA START RC Technical Report No. 13.

Attavanich, W. 2013. “The effect of climate change on Thailand’s agriculture.” Selected Paper Presenting at the 7th International Academic Conference, Prague, Czech Republic. September 1–4.

Attavanich, W. 2016. The effect of climate change on global rice production under shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways. Department of Economics, Kasetsart University, Thailand.

Attavanich, W. and McCarl, B.A., 2014. How is CO2 affecting yields and technological progress? A statistical analysis. Climatic change, 124(4), pp.7470.00762.

Attavanich, W., McCarl, B.A., Ahmedov, Z., Fuller, S.W. and Vedenov, D.V., 2013. Effects of climate change on US grain transport. Nature Climate Change, 3(7), pp.6380.00643.

Brown, M.E., Antle, J.M., Backlund, P., Carr, E.R., Easterling, W.E., Walsh, M.K. and Tebaldi, C., 2015. Climate change, global food security, and the US food system. Washington, DC: United States Department of Agriculture. http://www. usda. gov/oce/climate_change/FoodSecurity. htm, accessed October, 15, p.2015.

Deschenes, O., and M. Greenstone. 2007. The economic impacts of climate change: Evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather. American Economic Review 97 (1): 354–85.

Dinar, A., R. Mendelsohn, R. Evenson, J. Parikh, A. Sanghi, K. Kumar, J. McKinsey, and S. Lonergan (eds) 1998. Measuring the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. World Bank Technical Paper No. 402, Washington, DC.

IPCC, 2013. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.0.00K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

IPCC, 2014. Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 10.0032.

IPCC, ed. 2007a. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change., eds. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

———. 2007b. Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change., eds. M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, P. J. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden and C. E. Hanson. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Isvilanonda, S., S. Praneetvatakul, and C. Khamwong. 2009. Economic impact assessment of climate change on rice production in Thailand. Project Code: RDG5130015.The Thailand Research Fund, Thailand.

Khamwong, C., and S. Praneetvatakul. 2011. Impact of climate change on agricultural revenue and adaptation strategies of farmers in Northeasterm Thailand. Kasetsart Journal (Social Science) 32: 2140.00228.

Kumar, K. and J. Parikh. 2001. Indian agriculture and climate sensitivity. Global Environmental Change 11: 147–54.

McCarl, B. A., W. Attavanich, M. Musumba, J. Mu, and R. Aisabokhae. 2013. Land use and climate change. In The Oxford Handbook of Land Economics., eds. M. Joshua Duke, JunJie Wu. Oxford University Press.

McCarl, B. A., X. Villavicencio, and X. Wu. 2008. Climate change and future analysis: Is stationarity dying? American Journal of Agricultural Economics 90 (5): 1241–47.

Mendelsohn, R (eds.). 2001. Global Warming and the American Economy: A Regional Assessment of Climate Change. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.

Mendelsohn, R., J. Arellano0.00Gonzalez, and P. Christensen. 2010. A Ricardian analysis of Mexican farms. Environment and Development Economics 15 (2): 153–71.

Mendelsohn, R., W. D. Nordhaus, and D. Shaw. 1994. The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. American Economic Review 84: 753–71.

Mendelsohn, R., and M. Reinsborough. 2007. A Ricardian analysis of U.S. and Canadian farmland. Climatic Change 81 (1): 9–17.

Office of Environmental Policy and Planning. 2000. Thailand’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Science, Technology, and Environment. Bangkok, Thailand. 100 p.

Pannangpetch K., V. Sarawat, S. Boonpradub, S. Ratanasriwong, S. Kongton, S. Nilpunt, C. Buddhaboon, K. Kunket, I. Buddhasimma, P. Kapetch, K. Ek0.00un, W. Damrhikhemtrakul. 2009. Impacts of global warming on rice, sugarcane, cassava, and maize production in Thailand. Project Code: RDG5130007. The Thailand Research Fund, Thailand.

Perry, M. and Hollis, D., 2005. The generation of monthly gridded datasets for a range of climatic variables over the UK. International Journal of Climatology, 25(8), pp.10410.001054.

Reilly, J., F. Tubiello, B. A. McCarl, D. Abler, R. Darwin, K. Fuglie, S. Hollinger, C. Izaurralde, S. Jagtap, and J. Jones. 2003. U.S. agriculture and climate change: new results. Climatic Change 57: 43–67.

Reinsborough, M. J. 2003. A Ricardian model of climate change in Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics 36: 210.0040.

Schlenker, W., W. M. Hanemann, and A. C. Fisher. 2005. Will U.S. agriculture really benefit from global warming? Accounting for irrigation in the hedonic approach. American Economic Review 95 (1): 395–406.

Schlenker, W., and M. J. Roberts. 2009. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 (37): 15594.

Seo, S. N., and R. Mendelsohn. 2008. An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in Latin American farms. Ecological Economics 67: 109–16.

Seo, S., R. Mendelsohn, and M. Munasinghe. 2005. Climate change and agriculture in Sri Lanka: A Ricardian valuation. Environmental and Development Economics 10: 581–96.

Smith, J. B., and D. A. Tirpak (eds.). 1989. The Potential effects of global climate change on the United States: Report to Congress, United States, Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation.

Wang, J., R. Mendelsohn, A. Dinar, J. Huang, S. Rozelle, and L. Zhang. 2009. The impact of climate change on China's agriculture. Agricultural Economics 40 (3): 323–37.

Wiebe, K., Lotze0.00Campen, H., Sands, R., Tabeau, A., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Biewald, A., Bodirsky, B., Islam, S., Kavallari, A., Mason0.00D’Croz, D. and Müller, C., 2015. Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 10(8), p.085010.

Van Vuuren, D and K. Riahi. 2008. Do recent emissions trends imply higher emissions forever? Climatic Change 91: 2370.00248.