Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments: Empirical Evidence from ECOWAS Countries

Cham, Yaya (2023): Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments: Empirical Evidence from ECOWAS Countries.

Abstract

The study primarily presents a critical and imperative analytical framework, accentuating the intricate interplay between the demand for money and the supply of money in shaping the economic equilibrium of the balance of payments (BOP). The focal point of this paper involves a meticulous examination of the monetary perspective regarding the BOP within the ECOWAS countries spanning the temporal domain from 2005 to 2019. This investigation is accomplished through the adept utilization of the second-generation unit root tests, namely the Common Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) test and the Cross-sectional Augmented IPS (CIPS) test, alongside the comprehensive Westerlund cointegration test to ascertain the enduring nexus existing within the examined series. By adopting the dynamic homogeneous panel estimator, this study conducts an exhaustive scrutiny of both the short-term and long-term dynamics. The empirical findings, gleaned from the Pooled Mean Group analysis, unveil the pivotal role of monetary variables in determining BOP. In the medium and extended temporal spectra, ameliorations in domestic credit within the ECOWAS region are juxtaposed with a concomitant decline in net foreign assets, thus manifestly contributing to the deterioration of the BOP milieu in the aforementioned zones. Furthermore, a parallel analysis divulges a counteractive relationship between economic growth and inflation with net foreign assets in the short run, while this association transforms a synergistic correlation over the long haul. Conversely, the money supply engenders a positive and consequential influence on net foreign assets, evinced across both the transient and enduring periods. Essentially, the research findings substantiate the veracity of the monetary approach within the purview of the zones under contemplation. Consequently, monetary variables wield substantial and pronounced impacts on the BOP, with an escalating BOP, forth as a harbinger of enhanced equilibrium within the zones' balance of payments framework. Concerning policy implications, the underlying study underscores the monetary approach as an adept and fitting strategy, elucidating the notion that an outsized BOP deficit could potentially foster an environment conducive to the propagation of excessive domestic credit. Knowledge obtained from this research will go a long way in helping policy formulation and will also help the region in ensuring smooth developments in the external sector especially during the implementation of monetary policy.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Yaya Cham Monetary Approach Balance of Payments West African Monetary Institute Central Bank of The Gambia ARDL ECOWAS Crossectional
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O55 - Africa; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O57 - Comparative Studies of Countries; Y - Miscellaneous Categories > Y4 - Dissertations (unclassified) > Y40 - Dissertations (unclassified); Y - Miscellaneous Categories > Y5 - Further Reading (unclassified) > Y50 - Further Reading (unclassified)

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