A New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - Aggregate System

Dobrescu, Emilian (2018): A New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - Aggregate System. Published in: Romanian , Vol. 21, No. 4 (2018): pp. 5-20.

Abstract

The paper presents the version 2018 of the Romanian macromodel. Among its distinguishing features comparatively with previous variants can be mentioned: a) The econometric procedures are based on statistical series for 1989-2017 years, significantly longer than the previous version (1989-2011). b) There were improved methodological algorithms of approximating some missing data, especially those which concern the tangible fixed assets at constant prices, as a measure of the physical capital of economy. c) In order to ameliorate the operational tractability of the model, the specification of some relationships was revisited, and the modalities of ensuring inter-equation compatibility were also simplified. This version is structured into three main blocks: i) the production factors and output; ii) the domestic absorption and foreign trade; and iii) the prices and exchange rate, the national budget revenues and expenditures, the public debt. The experimental simulations confirmed the predictive plausibility of this new version.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: macromodel, accounting and behavioral relationships, simulations
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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