Pianta, Mario (2023): Inflation and distributive conflicts.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_119345.pdf Download (327kB) | Preview |
Abstract
In order to understand the rise and fall of inflation of 2022-2023, new theories and analytical frameworks are needed, closely connected the profound changes in monetary and fiscal policies that have accompanied the wave of price increases. This paper proposes a view of inflation as a set of distributive conflicts, develops a set of conceptual tools, reviews the recent empirical evidence and discusses policy responses. The rise of inflation was set in motion by the production distortions that emerged at the end of the covid-19 pandemic and by major rises in energy prices, accelerated by the start of the Ukraine war. Price rises then spread throughtout the economy, due to business search for higher profits. Price levels are now stabilizing at a significantly higher level, with lasting consequences on income distribution, the purchasing power of wages, and financial values. Facing inflation, economic policies have experienced a major turn, with monetary authorities in the United States and Europe turning to restrictive policies. The macroeconomic outlook, the trajectories of structural change, the distribution of income and the dynamics of finance are deeply affected by the new context; possible policy alternative, with a more coordinated framework for public action, are discussed in the conclusions of the paper.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Inflation and distributive conflicts |
English Title: | Inflation and distributive conflicts |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Inflation, income distribution, finance, economic policies |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E64 - Incomes Policy ; Price Policy |
Item ID: | 119345 |
Depositing User: | Prof. Mario Pianta |
Date Deposited: | 04 Dec 2023 01:33 |
Last Modified: | 04 Dec 2023 01:33 |
References: | Arrighi, G. (1994), The long 20th century. Money, power and the origins of our time, Verso, London. Attinasi, M. G., Balatti, M. (2021) Globalisation and its implications for inflation in advanced economies, ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 4/2021 Banca d’Italia (2023), Relazione annuale anno 2022, centoventinovesimo esercizio, Roma, 31 maggio 2023. Bank of international settlements (2019), Annual Economic Report, Editorial, June 2019 (https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2019e.pdf). Id. (2022), Annual Economic Report, June 2022 (https://www.bis.org/about/areport/areport2022.pdf). Bernanke B., Blanchard O. (2023), What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation?, Conference Draft for “The Fed: Lessons learned from the past three years” at the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, May 23, 2023 (https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Bernanke-Blanchard-conference-draft_5.23.23.pdf). Blanchard, O. (2022) It is time to revisit the 2% inflation target, Financial Times, 28 novembre 2022. Blanchard, O., Dell’Ariccia, G., Mauro, P. (2010), Rethinking Macro Policy, voxeu.org, 16 February. Bolhuis, M. A., Cramer, J. N. L., Summers, L. H. (2022), Comparing past and present inflation, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 30116 (June). Brunnermeier m.k. (2023), Rethinking Monetary Policy in a Changing World, IMF Finance & Development, March 2023 (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/03/rethinking-monetary-policy-in-a-changing-world-brunnermeier?Utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery). Ciccarone G., Gnesutta C. (1993), Conflitto di strategie. Economia e società italiana negli anni Novanta, La Nuova Italia Scientifica, Roma. DeLong B. (2023), The first inflation problem of the twenty-first century, in “Review of Keynesian Economics”, 11, pp. 117-28. European Central Bank (2022a), Economic, financial and monetary developments, in “Economic Bulletin Issue”, 2 (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/html/eb202302.en.html; consultato il 27 aprile 2023). Id. (2022b), Update on economic, financial and monetary developments, in “Economic Bulletin Issue”, 7 (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/html/eb202207.en.html; consultato il 27 aprile 2023). Ferguson, T., Storm, S. (2023), Mith and reality in the great inflation debate: supply shocks and wealth effects in a multipolare world economy, International Journal of Political Economy, 52, 1:1-44. Financial stability board (2022), Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2022, 20 dicembre 2022 (https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/P201222.pdf). Franzini M., Pianta M. (2016), Explaining Inequality, Routledge, London. Freeman, C., Louca, F. (2001) As time goes by. From the industrial revolution to the information revolution, Oxford University Press, Oxford. Friedman M. (1963), Inflation, Causes and Consequences, Asian Publishing House. Friedman, M. (1968) The Role of Monetary Policy, “American Economic Review”, 58, 1: 1-17 Galbraith, J.K. (1980) A Theory of Price Control, Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press. Galbraith J.K. (2023), The Quasi-Inflation of 2021-2022: A Case of Bad Analysis and Worse Response, in “Review of Keynesian Economics”, 11, pp. 172-82. Graziani, A. (1975) (ed.) Crisi e ristrutturazione nell’economia italiana, Einaudi, Torino. Graziani, A. (1998), Lo sviluppo dell'economia italiana. Dalla ricostruzione alla moneta europea, Bollati Boringhieri, Torino. Graziani, A. (2003), The Monetary Theory of Production, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Greenpeace (2023) Arming Europe. Military expenditures and their economic impact in Germany, Italy, and Spain. Greenpeace, Rome. Harvey, D, (2005), A brief history of neoliberalism, Oxford University Press, Oxford. Hudson, M. (2021) Rent-seeking and asset-price inflation: a total-returns profile of economic polarization in America, Review of Keynesian Economics, 9, 4: 435–460. ILO (2022), Global Wage Report 2022-23: The impact of inflation and COVID-19 on wages and purchasing power, International Labour Office, Ginevra. Kalecki, M. (1943). Political Aspects of Full Employment. “The Political Quarterly”, 14(4), 322–330. Kalecki, M. (1971). Selected Essays on the Dynamics of the Capitalist Economy 1933-1970, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Krugman p. (2023), Wonking Out: The Inflation Debate Is Cooling, New York Times, May 26, 2023 (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/26/opinion/inflation-fed-blanchard-bernanke.html). Kuttner, R. (2023) "Reclaiming U.S. Industry". The American Prospect, 24 January 2023. Lavoie M. (2022), Post-Keynesian economics: new foundations, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham. Lazonick, W. (2014) Profits Without Prosperity, “Harvard Business Review”, September Levy, J. (2021), Ages of American capitalism. A history of the United States. Random House, New York. Lorenzoni, G., Werning I. (2023), Inflation is Conflict, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper n. 31099 (https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31099/w31099.pdf; consultato il 31 maggio 2023). Minsky, H. (1982), Can ‘it’ happen again? Essays on Instability and Finance. M.E. Sharpe, New York. Morlin G.S. (2023), Inflation and conflicting claims in the open economy, in “Review of Political Economy”, pp. 1-29. Pain, N., Koske, I., Sollie, M. (2008) Globalisation and OECD Consumer Price Inflation, OECD Economic Studies No. 44, 1. Panetta F. (2023a), Everything everywhere all at once: responding to multiple global shocks, Conference “Global shocks, policy spillovers and geo-strategic risks: how to coordinate policies” at The ECB and its Watchers XXIII Conference, 14 febbraio 2023. Id. (2023b), Monetary policy after energy shock, Conference of the Centre for European Reform, Delegation of European Union to the United Kingdom and ECB Representative Office in London, 16 febbraio 2023 (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230216~a297a41feb.en.html). Pasimeni p. (2022), Supply or demand, that is the question: decomposing Euro Area inflation, in “Intereconomics”, 57, pp 384-93. Pianta M., Lucchese M., Nascia L. (2020), The policy space for industrial policy in Europe, in “Industrial and Corporate Change”, 29, pp. 779-95. Pianta M., Lucchese M. (2020), Rethinking the European Green Deal: An Industrial Policy for a Just Transition in Europe, Review of Radical Political Economics, 52, 4, https://doi.org/10.1177/0486613420938207 Quadrio Curzio, A. (2017), Eurobonds for EMU stability and structural growth, in Cardinale, I., Coffman, D., Scazzieri, R. (eds), The political economy of the Eurozone. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. Quadrio Curzio, A. (2022), Eurobond, Long Recovery, nuove regole. Per evitare una crisi europea di lunga durata, Huffington Post, 13 marzo 2022, https://www.huffingtonpost.it/autori/alberto_quadrio_curzio Ratner, D., Sim, J. (2022). Who Killed the Phillips Curve? A Murder Mystery, Finance and Economics, Discussion Series 2022-028. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington. Reinsdorf, M., Schreyer, P. (2019) Measuring consumer inflation in a digital economy, OECD Statistics Working Papers 2019/01. Rowthorn R.E. (1977), Conflict, inflation and money, in “Cambridge Journal of Economics”, 1, 3: 215-39. Schnabel I. (2023), Inflation in the euro area and the US – causes, persistence, outlook, Lecture at Stanford Graduate School of Business, 20 April 2023. Seccareccia, M., Matamoros Romero, G. (2022) The Fed Tackles Kalecki, Institute for New Economic Thinking, https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/the-fed-tackles-kalecki Sgaravatti G., S. Tagliapietra S.; Trasi C., Zachmann G., (2021), National policies to shield Consumers from rising energy prices, Bruegel Datasets, 4 Novembre 2021, https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/national-policies-shield-consumers-rising-energy-prices. Simone G., Pianta M. (2023), Understanding inflation: the Italian case, “Intereconomics”, 58, pp. 17-21. Stiglitz J.E., Regmi I. (2023), The causes of and responses to today’s inflation, in “Industrial and Corporate Change”, 32, pp. 336-85. Storm S. (2019), Lost in Deflation: Why Italy’s Woes Are a Warning to the Whole Eurozone, in “International Journal of Political Economy”, 48, pp. 195-237. Id. (2022), Inflation in a time of Corona and war, Institute for New Economic Thinking (https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/inflation-in-a-time-of-corona-and-war; consultato il 15 maggio 2023). Taylor, L. (2020) Macroeconomic inequality from Reagan to Trump: Market power, wage repression, asset price inflation, and industrial decline. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Tooze, A. (2019) Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World, Allen Lane, New York. Vicarelli F. (1987), La questione economica nella società italiana. Analisi e proposte, Il Mulino, Bologna. Visco I. (2023), Monetary policy and the return of inflation: Questions, charts and tentative answers, CEPR Policy Insight No. 122 (https://cepr.org/system/files/publication-files/184774-policy_insight_122_monetary_policy_and_the_return_of_inflation_questions_charts_and_tentative_answers.pdf). Vianello F. (1975) I meccanismi di recupero del profitto: l’esperienza italiana 1963-1973, in Graziani, A. (a cura di ) Crisi e ristrutturazione nell’economia italiana, Einaudi, Torino. Weber I.M., Jauregui G.L., Teixeira L., Nassif-Pires L. (2022), Inflation in Times of Overlapping Emergencies: Systemically Significant Prices from an Input-Output Perspective, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Economics Department Working Papers Series, 340, 2022 (https://doi.org/10.7275/0c5b-6a92). Weber I.M., Wasner E. (2023), Sellers’ inflation, profits and conflict: why can large firms hike prices in an emergency?, in “Review of Keynesian Economics”, 11, pp. 183-213. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/119345 |