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Self-betrayal voters: The Spaniards Case

Pérez-Asurmendi, Patrizia and de Andrés Calle, Rocío (2023): Self-betrayal voters: The Spaniards Case.

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This contribution deals with the measurement of the concordance between two characteristics reported by individuals at different points in time. Although intuition tell us that the declared opinion would be the same each time, the evidence does not always show it. In these cases, several measures for calculating agreement can be found in the literature, but by using them, much of the available information is lost, since they do not take disagreement into account. To overcome this drawback, we propose to use Cohen’s Kappa statistic, which is an easy-to- interpret tool to measure the agreement between two categorical characteristics considering also the disagreement. To illustrate its applicability, we analyze the concordance between declared voting intention and voting decision, and between declared sympathy for political parties before and after the election with data from the 2015 General Election in Spain.

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