CETA, an ex post analysis

Ficarra, Giovanni Maria and Millemaci, Emanuele (2024): CETA, an ex post analysis.

Abstract

We perform an ex-post analysis of the effects of the CETA trade agreement in the agricultural, farming and food transformation sectors. We find strong evidence in support of a positive trade effect of the treaty. We also perform a series of analyses aimed at ascertaining the effects of the treaty on various subsectors. We find overall net-positive trade effects although we can clearly identify “winners” and “losers” of the treaty. Our analyses seem to indicate a positive trade creation effect not limited to the parties. We find evidence that the increase in trade flow between the members had a net positive effect in the form of an increase in overall international trade. We draw some preliminary policy conclusions on the effects of the treaty.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: CETA – Gravity Equation – Trade – Poisson Regression – Cluster analysis
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F10 - General; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration

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