Un réexamen de l’effet de seuil de la dette publique sur la croissance économique en Afrique subsaharienne

TOGBENU, Fo-kossi Edem and Kadanga, Mayo Takémsi Norris (2024): Un réexamen de l’effet de seuil de la dette publique sur la croissance économique en Afrique subsaharienne.

Abstract

Our study aims to reexamine the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries over the period from 2000 to 2020. To achieve this, we have chosen to use a dynamic panel threshold model, recently developed by Seo and Shin (2016), to address various estimation issues, including reverse causality and endogeneity. Furthermore, differences among Sub-Saharan African countries in terms of development level, natural resource intensity, institutional quality, and the level of illicit financial flows are examined. The results reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between public debt and economic growth, indicating the existence of an optimal level of public debt at 58% of GDP for the entire sample. For the group of countries characterized by more developed economies, rich in natural resources in the region with a satisfactory Human Development Index (HDI), relatively better institutional quality, and higher illicit financial flows, a debt threshold of 74% is estimated. In contrast, for the group of countries characterized by lower dependence on natural resources, a lower HDI, less favorable institutional quality, and lower illicit financial flows, a debt threshold is estimated at 47%, significantly lower. These results highlight the diversity of optimal public debt thresholds based on the specific characteristics of Sub-Saharan African countries.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: A reevaluation of the threshold effect of public debt on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Language: French
• Keywords: Public debt, economic growth, dynamic panel, Sub-Saharan Africa
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H63 - Debt ; Debt Management ; Sovereign Debt

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