Malthus in Germany? Fertility, Mortality, and Status in pre-industrial Germany 1600-1850

Ohler, Johann (2024): Malthus in Germany? Fertility, Mortality, and Status in pre-industrial Germany 1600-1850.

Abstract

This paper studies the individual-level assumptions of the Malthusian model in pre-industrial Germany. By exploiting demographic records for 150,000 individuals from the historical county of Wittgenstein, I test for status gradients in child mortality (the Malthusian positive check) and marital fertility (preventive check). While I find no evidence for a status gradient in child mortality, I find strong evidence for a status gradient in fertility. The richest families had, on average, one extra child when compared to their poorer compatriots. Turning to the mechanics of the preventive check, this appears to have been driven mostly by an earlier age of marriage amongst high status families. Disaggregating my dataset into six periods reveals that this fertility differential began to disintegrate around 1800. Ergo, I conclude that prior to 1800, the German population was subject to some Malthusian forces, albeit it was not stuck in a rigid Malthusian equilibrium, as conceptualised by some neo Malthusian scholars.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: German Economic History; Malthus; Demographic History; European Marriage Pattern; Unified Growth Theory
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J12 - Marriage ; Marital Dissolution ; Family Structure ; Domestic Abuse; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility ; Family Planning ; Child Care ; Children ; Youth; N - Economic History > N3 - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy > N33 - Europe: Pre-1913; N - Economic History > N9 - Regional and Urban History > N93 - Europe: Pre-1913; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General

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