Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia

Koundouri, Phoebe and Papayiannis, Georgios I. and Vassilopoulos, Achilleas and Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N. (2023): Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia. Published in:

Abstract

This study presents a novel approach to assessing food security risks at the national level, employing a probabilistic scenario-based framework that integrates both Shared Socioeco-nomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). This innovative method allows each scenario, encompassing socio-economic and climate factors, to be treated as a model capable of generating diverse trajectories. This approach offers a more dynamic understanding of food security risks under varying future conditions. The paper details the methodologies employed, showcasing their applicability through a focused analysis of food security challenges in Egypt and Ethiopia, and underscores the importance of considering a spectrum of socio-economic and climatic factors in national food security assessments.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: food security risk, model uncertainty, probabilistic projections risk quantification, Representative Concentration Pathways, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
• Subjects: H - Public Economics > H0 - General; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty; L - Industrial Organization > L1 - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development

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