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How Does Political Uncertainty Affect the Optimal Degree of Policy Divergence?

Aytimur, Emre and Boukouras, Aris and Suen, Richard M. H. (2024): How Does Political Uncertainty Affect the Optimal Degree of Policy Divergence?

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Abstract

We examine how the optimal degree of policy divergence between two policy platforms in an election is affected by two types of aggregate uncertainty: policy-related and candidate-specific. We show that when the candidate-specific uncertainty is sufficiently large, policy convergence becomes optimal. We also show that when these two types of uncertainty co-exist, only purely office-motivated parties result in policy convergence, in other words, any level of policy motivation of parties results in some policy divergence, making policy motivation undesirable when candidate-specific uncertainty is sufficiently large.

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