Can central bankers’ talk predict bank stock returns? A machine learning approach

Katsafados, Apostolos G. and Leledakis, George N. and Panagiotou, Nikolaos P. and Pyrgiotakis, Emmanouil G. (2024): Can central bankers’ talk predict bank stock returns? A machine learning approach.

Abstract

We combine machine learning algorithms (ML) with textual analysis techniques to forecast bank stock returns. Our textual features are derived from press releases of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We show that ML models produce more accurate out-of-sample predictions than OLS regressions, and that textual features can be more informative inputs than traditional financial variables. However, we achieve the highest predictive accuracy by training ML models on a combination of both financial variables and textual data. Importantly, portfolios constructed using the predictions of our best performing ML model consistently outperform their benchmarks. Our findings add to the scarce literature on bank return predictability and have important implications for investors.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Bank stock prediction; Trading strategies; Machine learning; Press conferences; Natural language processing; Banks
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs > C88 - Other Computer Software; G - Financial Economics > G0 - General > G00 - General; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies ; Insider Trading; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation; G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages

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