Spatial Analysis and Time Trend Regression of Multifactorial Violence-related Death and its Connection with Public Health in Nigeria

Okunlola, Oluyemi A. and Otekunrin, Oluwaseun A. and Adewumi, Idowu P. and Oguntola, Toyin O. (2025): Spatial Analysis and Time Trend Regression of Multifactorial Violence-related Death and its Connection with Public Health in Nigeria.

Abstract

Interpersonal violence poses a formidable obstacle to harmonious coexistence, socioeconomic development, and public health globally, given its deleterious consequences and attendant mortality. In a multicultural society like Nigeria, violence is an unfortunate inevitability. This study undertakes a spatial analysis and Poisson time trend analysis of violence-related mortality cases in Nigeria, aiming to elucidate the dynamics, assess the public health burden, estimate relative risk, identify hotspots, and inform policy interventions to mitigate violence in severely affected areas. A total of 195,170 cases were recorded between 2006 and 2023, with Borno (46,425), Lagos (12,086), and Kaduna (10,548) accounting for 24%, 6%, and 5% of cases, respectively. In contrast, Ekiti state had the lowest number of cases (752). Notably, death rates in 2014 and 2015 accounted for 12% and 9% of all deaths rates that were attributed to violence during the period considered. The violent death rate showed clear regional differences, with over half of all deaths occurring in the North Central and North East regions. The South East and South West regions contributed 8% and 10% of the remaining share, respectively, while the North West and South South regions contributed 12% and 14%, respectively. These figures show statistically significant socioeconomic and public health differences between the country's northern and southern regions (F = 82.709, P<0.000). Analysis of relative risk showed that while Plateau, Cross River, and Anambra had constant incidence rates, 27 states had elevated relative risk and seven states had a minimal drop in violence-related death. According to the study's findings, violence can have a significant impact on the health of mothers and children, making the nation's already fragile public health situation much worse. These findings underscore the complexity of Nigeria's violence landscape, highlighting the need for targeted, region-specific interventions to address the escalating violence and its public health repercussions. Policymakers and governments at all levels must prioritize evidence-based strategies to mitigate violence and promote peaceful coexistence in Nigeria.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Violence deaths; Poisson; Trend, Spatial analysis; Public health, Violence
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes

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