Das, Abhirup and Rajan, Bhargav Raman and Santosh Bandi, Syam Sai and Udandarao, Vikranth (2025): From Polls to Policies: The Economic Impact of Elections.
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Abstract
Elections play an essential role in shaping domestic and global economies. This review paper examines the effect of election cycles on economic outcomes, mainly focusing on the United States while analysing other countries, including China, India, and other developing countries. The paper explores how different political strategies and policies influence economic indicators such as the Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rate, inflation, trade and nominal income. Analysis reveals that electoral pressures often drive short-term economic manipulation at the expense of long-term fiscal health. The paper states the influence of leadership changes on market volatility and trade and fiscal policies using statistical insights and models. The paper goes over the implications of elections and the need for policies prioritising long-term fiscal health over electoral gains.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
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Original Title: | From Polls to Policies: The Economic Impact of Elections |
English Title: | From Polls to Policies: The Economic Impact of Elections |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Elections, Fiscal Health, Electoral Gain, Political Strategies, Policies, Voter Accountability |
Subjects: | D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems > P16 - Political Economy |
Item ID: | 123801 |
Depositing User: | Mr Vikranth Udandarao |
Date Deposited: | 01 Mar 2025 09:38 |
Last Modified: | 01 Mar 2025 09:39 |
References: | 1. De Benedictis-Kessner, J., & Warshaw, C. (2020). Accountability for the local economy at all levels of government in United States elections. American Political Science Review, 114(3), 660–676. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055420000027 2. Buchanan, J. M., & Rowley, C. K. (1978). The economics of politics. Institute of Economic Affairs. https://www.bsfrey.ch/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/the-political-business-cycle-theory-and-evidence.pdf 3. Guru, S. (2024). Economic Impact of United States Presidential Election Years: A Comparative Analysis. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4956582 4. Wu, G. (2021). The Impact of the U.S. Election on China and America. Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research/Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research. https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.210407.143 5. Baker, S., Baksy, A., Bloom, N., Davis, S., & Rodden, J. (2020). Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27961 6. Khemani, S. (2004). Political cycles in a developing economy: Effect of elections in the Indian states. Journal of Development Economics, 73(1), 125–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.01.002 7. Boumans, D., Gründler, K., Potrafke, N., & Ruthardt, F. (2024). Political leaders and macroeconomic expectations: Evidence from a global survey experiment. Journal of Public Economics, 235, 105140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105140 8. Elections and Economic Policy in Developing Countries on JSTOR. (n.d.). www.jstor.org. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40272549 9. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty*. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024 |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/123801 |