Evaluación del método de corriente de bienes frente a un enfoque de demanda para estimar el gasto mensual de los hogares en Argentina

Frank, Luis (2025): Evaluación del método de corriente de bienes frente a un enfoque de demanda para estimar el gasto mensual de los hogares en Argentina.

Abstract

The paper evaluates the validity of the "flow of goods" method for estimating monthly household expenditure in Argentina, comparing it with an approach based on a demand function. Four retail time series (wholesale and retail supermarkets, shopping centers, and appliances) are analyzed from January 2017 to March 2025. Two VARX models are fitted: one based on the Industrial Production Index (IPI, flow of goods) and another on the relationship between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) deflated by the Wage Index (ISAL) and the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE, demand function). The results indicate that the IPI only explains sales in malls and household appliances, while the CPI/ISAL ratio explains sales in all four types of stores, and the EMAE explains sales in malls and household appliances. This result suggests that monthly household expenditures adjust to prices, relative to wages, and in certain cases to income, independently of the flow of production. It is concluded that the flow of goods method is inadequate for monthly expenditure estimates, as it does not capture short-term consumer behavior. A mixed estimation strategy for aggregate consumption based on sales surveys and demand functions is proposed for those items whose sales are not recorded in the statistical system.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Evaluation of the flow of goods method versus a demand approach to estimate monthly household expenditure in Argentina
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: household expenditure, flow of goods, retail sales, aggregate consumption
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth

References

Frank, L. 2022. Predicción anticipada de agregados macroeconómicos con indicadores no contemporáneos: el caso de EMAE. MPRA Paper No. 114324. At: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/114324/

Frank, L. 2024. Proyección del Consumo Privado de Argentina por medio de un Modelo de Corrección de Errores. MPRA Paper No. 121181. At: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/121181/

INDEC, Dirección de Cuentas Nacionales, 2016. Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica (EMAE), Base año 2004. Metodología INDEC Nro. 20. Buenos Aires. ISSN 2545-7179

INDEC, Dirección de Cuentas Nacionales, 2016. Metodología de estimación Base 2004 y serie a precios constantes y corrientes. Metodología INDEC Nro. 21. Buenos Aires. ISSN 2545-7179