Perry, Miles (2008): FOOD PRODUCTION VS. BIOMASS EXPORT VS. LAND-USE CHANGE: A CGE ANALYSIS FOR ARGENTINA.
Download (370kB) | Preview
World trade in biomass is likely to increase in the years up to 2020 as imports are required to meet the demand created (directly or indirectly) by policy measures such as the EU Biofuels Directive. This paper assesses the macroeconomic consequences such large-scale trade for the exporting country, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Argentina. Given an exogenous increase in world prices for biomass, the model finds that production shifts towards biomass and away from other sectors. Implications of this include changes in the relative prices of goods and the purchasing power of labour. Price rises are largest in land-intensive sectors of the economy and the overall purchasing power of labour is adversely affected since biomass sectors are among the least labour intensive. When expansion of the agricultural area is permitted, relative price changes become less pronounced. However, expansion of the agricultural frontier may have adverse environmental impacts, including lowering the net GHG savings attributable to the biomass produced.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||FOOD PRODUCTION VS. BIOMASS EXPORT VS. LAND-USE CHANGE: A CGE ANALYSIS FOR ARGENTINA|
|Keywords:||CGE, Biofuels, Argentina|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F18 - Trade and Environment
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics
D - Microeconomics > D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium > D58 - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
|Depositing User:||Miles Perry|
|Date Deposited:||17. Feb 2009 08:00|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 11:57|
 Hamelinck C N, Suurs R A A, and Faaij A P C. International bioenergy transport costs and energy balance. Biomass and Bioenergy 2005; Vol 29, Number 2: p. 114-134.
 Smeets E M W, Faaij A P C, Lewandowski I M, and Turkenburg W C. A bottom-up assessment and review of global bio-energy potentials to 2050. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science 2007; Vol 33, Number 1: p. 56-106.
 Morton D C, DeFries R S, Shimabukuro Y E, Anderson L O, Arai E, del Bon Espirito-Santo F, et al. Cropland expansion changes deforestation dynamics in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2006; Vol 103, Number 39: p. 14637-14641.
 Nepstad D C. Interactions among Amazon land use, forests and climate: prospects for a near-term forest tipping point. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London 2008; Vol 363, Number 1498: p. 1737-1746.
 Berndes G, Hoogwijk M, and van den Broek R. The contribution of biomass in the future global energy supply: a review of 17 studies. Biomass and Bioenergy 2003; Vol 25, Number 1: p. 1-28.
 Hoogwijk M, Faaij A, van den Broek R, Berndes G, Gielen D, and Turkenburg W. Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy. Biomass and Bioenergy 2003; Vol 25, Number 2: p. 119-133.
 Searchinger T, Heimlich R, Houghton R A, Dong F, Elobeid A, Fabiosa J, et al., Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land Use Change. 2008. p. 1151861.
 European Commission. The Impact of a Minimum 10% Obligation for Biofuel Use in the EU-27 in 2020 on Agricultural Markets. 2007. http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/markets/biofuel/impact042007/text_en.pdf
 von Braun J. The World Food Situation, New Driving Forces and Required Actions. IFPRI. 2007. http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/fpr/pr18.pdf
 Banse M. The Impact of Biofuels on Land Markets and Production - Methodological Issues and Results from LEITAP. Presentation to Biofuel Assessment Conference. 04/06/2007. Copenhagen.
 Ignaciuk A M and Dellink R B. Biomass and multi-product crops for agricultural and energy production--an AGE analysis. Energy Economics 2006; Vol 28, Number 3: p. 308-325.
 Johansson D and Azar C. A scenario based analysis of land competition between food and bioenergy production in the US. Climatic Change 2007; Vol 82, Number 3: p. 267-291.
 Eurostat, 2006. Lookup of Trade Statistics. [Accessed 2008 18/05]; Available from: http://ec.europa.eu/comm/eurostat.
 FAO, 2007. FAOSTAT. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Accessed 18/05/2008. http://faostat.fao.org
 Lee H-L, Hertel T, Sohngen B, and Ramankutty N. GTAP Land-use Database Version 2.0. Global Trade Analysis Project. https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=1900
 Petri G L and Parra M M. Argentina: Social Accounting Matrix, 2000. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2005. http://www.ifpri.org/data/Argentina01.asp
 Dimaranan B V and McDougall R A, Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 5 Data Base, ed. P.U. Center for Global Trade Analysis. 2002.
 Horridge M, RunGTAP v5. 2008, University of Monash: Melbourne.
 INDEC (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos). Matriz Insumo-Producto 1997 (MIPAr97). 2001. http://www.indec.mecon.ar/
 Schmidhuber J. Impact of an Increased Biomass Use on Agricultural Markets, Prices and Food Security: A Longer-term Perspective. FAO. 2006. http://www.fao.org/es/ESD/BiomassNotreEurope.pdf
 Rutherford T and Tarr D. Regional Trading Arrangements for Chile: Do the Results Differ with a Dynamic Model? Économie Internationale 2003; Vol 94-95, Number: p. 261-281.
 FAO. Food Outlook, November 2007. GIEWS - Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture. 2007. ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/ah876e/ah876e00.pdf
 Rutherford T. Applied General Equilibrium Modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax. University of Colorado. 1997. http://www.mpsge.org/mpsge/syntax.pdf
 Wing I S. Computable General Equilibrium Models and Their Use in Economy-Wide Policy Analysis. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. 2004. http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/MITJPSPGC_TechNote6.pdf
 Rutherford T and Böhringer C, Combining Bottom-up and Top-down, in Energy Policy Analysis: a Decomposition Approach. 2007, ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research Discussion Paper No. 06-007.
 Markusen J. General-Equilibrium Modeling using GAMS and MPS/GE: Some Basics. 2002. http://www.mpsge.org/tutorial.pdf
 Armington P. A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Origin. IMF Staff Papers 1969; Vol 16, Number 1: p. 159.