La tasa de cambio real como meta de política: teoría y evidencia

Reinhart, Carmen and Calvo, Guillermo and Vegh, Carlos (1994): La tasa de cambio real como meta de política: teoría y evidencia. Published in: Enayos Sobre Politica Economica , Vol. 25, (June 1994): pp. 7-50.

Abstract

Este trabajo presenta un análisis teórico y empirico de las politicas dirigidas a alcanzar un nivel más depreciado de la tasa de carnbio real. Un modelo de optimización intertemporal sugiere que, en ausencia de cambios en la politica fiscal, un nivel más depreciado de la tasa de carnbio real só1o puede mantenerse de manera temporal. Esto puede lograrse a través de un mayor nivel de la inflación y/o tasa real de interks, dependiendo del grado de movilidad del capital. La evidencia de Brasil, Chile y Colombia sustenta la predicción del modelo según la cual tasas de cambio subvaluadas estan asociadas con una mayor inflación.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Targeting the real exchange rate: Theory and evidence
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: tipo de cambio politica monetaria tasas de interes
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

References

Adams, C., and D. Gros, 1986, The consequences of real exchange rate rules for inflation: some illustrative examples, IMF Staff Papers 33, 439-476.

Bacha, E. L., 1979, Notes on the Brazilian experience with minidevaluations, 1968-1976, Journal of Development Economics 6, 463-481.

Beveridge, S., and C. Nelson, 1981, A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to the measurement of the business cycle, Journal of Monetary Economics 7, 151-174.

Carrasquilla, A., 1992, Estabilización macroeconómica y tasas de interés en Colombia: se agotó otro modelo?, Mimeo (Banco de la República, Colombia).

Cochrane, J., 1988, How big is the random walk in GNP?, Journal of Political Economy 96, 893-920.

Dornbusch, R., 1982, PPP exchange rate rules and macroeconomic stability, Journal of Political Economy 90, 158-165.

Edwards, S., 1985, Stabilization with liberalization: An evaluation of ten years of Chile's experiment with free market policies, 1973-1983, Economic Development and Cultural Change 33, 223-254.

Edwards, S., 1989, Real exchange rates, devaluation, and adjustment (MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts).

Edwards, S. 1991, Comment, in: M. Bruno, S. Fischer, E. Helpman, and N. Liviatan, eds., Lessons of economic stabilization and its aftermath (MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts), 92-98. Ffrench-Davis, R., 1981, Exchange rate policies in Chile: the experience with the crawling-peg, in: J. Williamson, ed., Exchange rate rules (St. Martin's Press, New York), 152-174.

Fontaine, J. A., 1991, La administración de la política monetaria en Chile, 1985-1989, Cuadernos de Economía 28 (Chile), 109-129.

Guidotti, P. A., and C. A. Végh, 1992, Macroeconomic interdependence under capital controls: a two-country model of dual exchange rates, Journal of International Economics 32, 342-367.

Guilkey, D. K., and P. Schmidt, 1989, Extended tabulations for Dickey-Fuller tests, Economics Letters 31, 355-357.

Herrera, S., 1991, Qué tan grande es el desequilibrio cambiario en Colombia?, Ensayos sobre política económica 20 (Banco de la República, Colombia), 145-174.

Johansen, S., 1988, Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12, 231-254.

Johansen, S., 1991, Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models, Econometrica 59, 1551-1580.

Lizondo, J. S., 1991, Real exchange rate targets, nominal exchange rate policies, and inflation, Revista de Análisis Económico 6, 5-22.

Lizondo, J. S., 1993, Real exchange rate targeting under imperfect asset substitutability, IMF Staff Papers 40, 829-851.

Miller, S., 1988, The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series: another economical computational method, Journal of Monetary Economics 21, 141-142.

Montiel, P.J. and J. Ostry, 1991, Macroeconomic implications of real exchange rate targeting in developing countries, IMF Staff Papers 38, 872-900.

Montiel, P.J. and J. Ostry, 1992, Real exchange rate targeting under capital controls: can money provide a nominal anchor?, IMF Staff Papers 39, 58-78.

Obstfeld, M., 1986, Capital controls, the dual exchange rate and devaluation, Journal of International Economics 20, 1-20.

Osterwald-Lenum, M., 1992, A note with quantiles of the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood cointegration rank test statistic, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 54, 461-469.

Ostry, J. and C. M. Reinhart, 1992, Private saving and terms of trade shocks: evidence from developing countries, IMF Staff Papers 39, 495-517.

Reinhart, C. M. and C. A. Végh, 1993, Intertemporal consumption substitution and inflation stabilization: an empirical investigation, Mimeo (IMF, Washington, DC).

Reinhart, C. M. and C. A. Végh, 1994, Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: a quantitative examination, Mimeo (IMF, Washington, DC), forthcoming in Journal of Development Economics.

Roldos, J. E., 1990, The terms of trade and the real exchange rate: theory and evidence, Mimeo (University of Rochester).

Stock, J., and M. Watson, 1989, A simple MLE of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems, NBER Technical Working Paper 83.

Williamson, J., 1981a, The crawling peg in historical perspective, in: J. Williamson, ed., Exchange rate rules (St. Martin's Press, New York), 3-30.

Williamson, J., ed., 1981b, Exchange rate rules (New York: St. Martin's Press).