Novarese, Marco (2009): Past success and present overconfidence.
Download (170kB) | Preview
According to a wide literature persons are not able to evaluate their own skills and knowledge, but the discussion on the nature, extension and determinants of this phenomenon is still open. This paper aims at proposing new empirical evidence on overconfidence and its determinants, trying to find out the possible effect of past performance on present optimism. I test my students' calibration and confidence in predicting their future results, comparing their expectations and real grades. My analysis allows showing the existence of overconfidence, its reduction in two following tests, and its non linear relation with students' capacities. Besides, I focus my attention on the effect of the grade my students got at the end of high school. This is used a proxy of their past experience and habit to get good or bad grades. Past success determined overconfidence. This idea is connected to the literature on heuristics and rule based perception.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Past success and present overconfidence|
|Keywords:||overconfidence, expectations, learning, inertia, rule based behavior, economic education|
|Subjects:||D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D83 - Search ; Learning ; Information and Knowledge ; Communication ; Belief ; Unawareness|
|Depositing User:||Marco Novarese|
|Date Deposited:||04. Mar 2009 00:10|
|Last Modified:||19. Feb 2013 18:07|
Bandura, A 1982. Self-efficacy: mechanism in human agency. American Psychologist 37:122-147.
Bandura, A 1989. Human agency in social cognitive theory. American Psychologist 44:1175-1184.
Bateson G. (1972), Steps to an Ecology of Mind. Collected Essays in Anthropology, Psychiatry, Evolution, and Epistemology, References are based on Bateson (2000), University of Chicago press, Chicago
Bengtsson C., Persson, M. Willenhag P. (2005) Gender and overconfidence, Economics Letters, vol 86-2, February, 199-203
Gigerenzer, G. (1991). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond "heuristics and biases." In W. Stroebe and Hewstone M. (Eds.), European Review of Social Psychology (Vol. 2, pp. 83-115). Chichester, England: Wiley.
Griffin, D & Tversky, A 1992. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology 24:411-435.
Grimes, P. W. (2002) The overconfident principles of economics student: An examination of a. metacognitive skill, Journal of Economic Education 33 (1): 15-30
Hayek (1969), The Primacy of the Abstract. In New Studies in Philosophy, Politics, Economics, and the History of Ideas. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Heiner, R. A. (1983) The Origin of Predictable Behavior, American Economic Review, 73 (4): 560-595
Klayman J., Soll J.B., Gonzalez-Vallejo C, Barlas S. (1999), Overconfidence: It depends on How, What and Whom you Ask, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 79(3), September, pp. 216-247
Levinthal, D.A. and March, J. G. (1993). The Myopia of Learning.Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 14, 95-112.
Lichtenstein S. and Fischhoff, B 1977. Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance 20:159-183.
Livingston J.A. (1997), Metacognition: An Overview, mimeo, http://www.gse.buffalo.edu/fas/shuell/CEP564/Metacog.htm (last download on february the 8th, 2009)
Ochse C. (2001), are positive self-perceptions and optimistic expectations really beneficial in an academic context?, progressio, vol 23-2, 52-60
Rabin, M. and J. Schrag (1999) First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confrmation Bias., Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1999, 114 (1), pp. 37-82
Rizzello S. (1999), The Economics of the Mind, Edward Elgar, Aldershot
Russo, J.E., Schoemaker, P.J.H. (1992), "Managing overconfidence", Sloan Management Review, Winter, pp.7-17
Svenson, O. (1980). Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers? Acta Psychologica, 47, 143-148
Van Den Steen E. (2004), Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases), American Economic Review, 94(4), 1141-1151
Vanberg V. (1993), "Rational Choice, Rule-Following, and Institutions -- an Evolutionary Perspective," in Mäki U., Gustafsson B., Knudsen K. (eds.), Rationality, Institutions, and Economic Methodology, Routledge, London
Vromen, J. (2004), Routines, genes and program-based behaviour, Papers in economics and Evolution, Max Planck Institute, pp. 1-30