The unholy trinity of financial contagion

Reinhart, Carmen and Kaminsky, Graciela and Vegh, Carlos (2003): The unholy trinity of financial contagion. Published in: Journal of Economic Perspectives , Vol. 17, No. 4 (September 2003): pp. 51-74.

Abstract

Over the last 20 years, some financial events, such as devaluations or defaults, have triggered an immediate adverse chain reaction in other countries -- which we call fast and furious contagion. Yet, on other occasions, similar events have failed to trigger any immediate international reaction. We argue that fast and furious contagion episodes are characterized by "the unholy trinity": (i) they follow a large surge in capital flows; (ii) they come as a surprise; and (iii) they involve a leveraged common creditor. In contrast, when similar events have elicited little international reaction, they were widely anticipated and took place at a time when capital flows had already subsided.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: financial crises contagion capital flows credit ratings credit banks exchange rates
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F30 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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